3D Local Crime Type Models Based on Crime Hotspot Detection

Abstract

This paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between locations and types of crime observed in the Czech Republic. Cluster analysis of crime data based on the recursive Bayesian mixture estimation algorithm is used to identify crime hotspots and estimate local models of crime type. The experiments report that the 2D configuration of the algorithm allows the detection of crime hotspots online. The 3D configuration provides 29% more accurate crime type models than 2D clustering and alternative data mining algorithms. For the data set used, it was determined in which crime hotspots the most serious and most frequent types of crime can be expected to occur with the highest probability. The limitation of the study is the artificial support of the 3D clusters by the fully continuous data vector with the recoded values of the crime type. The potential use of the algorithm is expected in online web applications for sharing information on criminal offenses managed by the Police of the Czech Republic with the public and local government entities in the Czech Republic.