Abstract
The Xianshuihe fault on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is one of the most active intracontinental faults worldwide. At least 16 strong earthquakes (M > 6.5) have occurred on this fault since 1327 CE. To reasonably assess the future seismic hazard of this fault region, it is essential to gain a comprehensive knowledge of the fault kinematics and stress state. In this study, we developed a fine 3D geomechanical model of the Xianshuihe fault and its adjacent area, and obtained a spatially continuous contemporary kinematics and crustal background stress field of this region. Our modeled results show that the slip rate of the Xianshuihe fault is as high as 11 mm/a on the northwestern segment and generally decreases to ~9 mm/a on the southeastern segment (i.e. Moxi fault). The Yulongxi fault, a branch oblique to the Moxi fault, has different slip senses in different segments with a very low horizontal slip rate (<0.6 mm/a). In terms of stress, the study area is dominated by a transtensional faulting stress regime with E-W-trending maximum horizontal stress SH, indicating the study area is mainly subjected to an E-W compression and N-S extension. Localized normal and thrust faulting regimes appear alternately along the Xianshuihe fault, showing an inhomogeneous stress state. The high normal stresses on the Songlinkou-Selaha segment and the Moxi fault combined with their relatively high slip rates, make us speculate that these two segments have the potential to produce strong earthquakes in the future. A relatively high seismic hazard is also ascribed to the Yulongxi fault based on the analysis of its geological and geodynamic environment.
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