3D Deep Learning Model for the Pretreatment Evaluation of Treatment Response in Esophageal Carcinoma: A Prospective Study (ChiCTR2000039279)

Abstract

To develop and validate a pretreatment computed tomography (CT)-based deep-learning (DL) model for predicting the treatment response to concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) among patients with locally advanced thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (TESCC). We conducted a prospective, multicenter study on the therapeutic efficacy of CCRT among TESCC patients across 9 hospitals in China (ChiCTR2000039279). A total of 306 patients with locally advanced TESCC diagnosed by histopathology from August 2015 to May 2020 were included in this study. A 3-dimensional DL radiomics model (3D-DLRM) was developed and validated based on pretreatment CT images to predict the response to CCRT. Furthermore, the prediction performance of the newly developed 3D-DLRM was analyzed according to 3 categories: radiation therapy plan, radiation field, and prescription dose used. The 3D-DLRM achieved good prediction performance, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.897 (95% confidence interval, 0.840-0.959) for the training cohort and 0.833 (95% confidence interval, 0.654-1.000) for the validation cohort. Specifically, the 3D-DLRM accurately predicted patients who would not respond to CCRT, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% for the validation cohort. Moreover, the 3D-DLRM performed well in all 3 categories, each with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of >0.8 and positive predictive values of approximately 100%. The proposed pretreatment CT-based 3D-DLRM provides a potential tool for predicting the response to CCRT among patients with locally advanced TESCC. With the help of precise pretreatment prediction, we may guide the individualized treatment of patients and improve survival.