397 Rehemorrhage of Brainstem Cavernous Malformations: A Benchmark Approach to Individualized Risk and Severity Assessment

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Brainstem cavernous malformations (BSCMs) represent a unique subgroup of cavernous malformations with more hemorrhagic presentation and technical challenges. METHODS: A total of 123 consecutive BSCM patients with symptomatic hemorrhage were identified between 2015 and 2022, with untreated follow-up > 12 months or subsequent hemorrhage during the untreated follow-up. Nomograms were proposed to individualize the assessment of subsequent hemorrhage risk and neurological status (determined by the modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score) after future hemorrhage. The least absolute shrinkage and selector operation (LASSO) regression was used for feature screening. The calibration curve and concordance index (C-index) were used to assess the internal calibration and discrimination performance of the nomograms. Cross-validation was further performed to validate the accuracy of the nomograms. RESULTS: Prior hemorrhage times (adjusted OR [aOR] 6.78 per ictus increase) and Zabramski type I or V (OR 11.04) were associated with rehemorrhage within 1 year. A lower mRS score after previous hemorrhage (aOR 0.38 for a shift to a higher mRS score), Zabramski type I or V (OR 3.41), medulla or midbrain location (aOR 2.77), and multiple cerebral cavernous malformations (aOR 11.76) were associated with worsened neurological status at subsequent hemorrhage. The nomograms showed good accuracy and discrimination, with a C-index of 0.80 for predicting subsequent hemorrhage within 1 year and 0.71 for predicting neurological status after subsequent hemorrhage, which were maintained in cross-validation. CONCLUSIONS: An individualized approach to risk and severity assessment of BSCM rehemorrhage was feasible with clinical and imaging features.