Abstract
Precipitation over the last 3800 years has been reconstructed using modern pollen calibration and precipitation data. A transfer function was then performed via the linear method of partial least squares. By calculating precipitation anomalies, it is estimated that precipitation deficits were greater than surpluses, reaching 21% and <9%, respectively. The period from 50 BC to 800 AD was the driest of the record. The drought related to the abandonment of the Maya Preclassic period featured a 21% reduction in precipitation, while the drought of the Maya collapse (800 to 860 AD) featured a reduction of 18%. The Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a period of positive phases (3.8–7.6%). The Little Ice Age was a period of climatic variability, with reductions in precipitation but without deficits.
Highlights
The understanding of climate dynamics and the prediction of future changes require the identification of patterns of climatic change at different temporal scales [1]
On the Yucatan Peninsula, the fossil pollen record has been analyzed in terms of vegetation change
With the purpose of contributing to the knowledge of climatic variability of the Yucatan Peninsula, this study presents a reconstruction of the vegetation from the northwest corner of the peninsula and the first quantitative reconstruction of precipitation for the last 3800 years
Summary
The understanding of climate dynamics and the prediction of future changes require the identification of patterns of climatic change at different temporal scales [1]. To find these patterns, it is necessary to take into account continuous readings that go beyond instrumental measurements, which provide a temporally limited perspective. On the Yucatan Peninsula, the fossil pollen record has been analyzed in terms of vegetation change. In the Yucatan region, the variability in precipitation had an important influence on the cultural history of the Mayan civilization [5]. Previous studies on the peninsula have indicated that the droughts suffered during the Classic period contributed to the collapse of the Mayan civilization [6,7,8,9]
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