35 Estimating the Impact of Pregnancy and Childbirth Interventions Coverage on Neonatal Survival during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Nepal

Abstract

Abstract Background The indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on neonatal survival, especially in a resource-constrained and yet previously well-performing nation and in terms of reductions in maternal and neonatal mortality rates, is of global health interest. Objectives We estimated additional newborn lives saved by pregnancy and childbirth interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nepal. Design/Methods We used an open-access linear deterministic model, Lives Saved Tool (LiST), to estimate additional newborn lives saved in a year, based on the change in coverage of specified pregnancy and childbirth interventions from the previous year. We kept the rest of the interventions and the effectiveness values unchanged from the ‘default’ in the LiST model. We ran LiST projections based on coverage changes of three or more antenatal care visits and institutional delivery using: (i) ‘actual’ coverage rates reported by health facilities and published in the government’s annual reports; and (ii) ‘target’ coverage rates from the Nepal Every Newborn Action Plan. In those two scenarios, we compared the estimates of additional lives saved in the last three years. Results The number of additional newborn lives saved (with a 95% confidence interval) in a year based on ‘actual’ versus ‘target’ intervention coverage rates varied considerably during the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic: 124 (95% CI: 85,177) vs 115 (78,163) in the year 2020; 83 (57, 118) vs 226 (155,323) in 2021, and 228 (156,323) vs 333 (228,471) in 2022. The top four interventions during childbirth would contribute to 70% (304 of 435) of additional lives saved, based on ‘actual’ coverage rates, compared to 87% (588 of 674) based on the ‘target’ coverages. Neonatal resuscitation saved the most newborn lives (91 vs 178), followed by thermal protection (77 vs 148), clean cord care (72 vs 138), and assisted vaginal delivery (64 vs 124). Prematurity, birth asphyxia, and sepsis are the top three causes of lives lost, contributing to around 72% of neonatal mortality, with estimated neonatal mortality rates of 19.46, 19.53, and 19.28 per 1000 live births in the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Conclusion A one-third reduction in estimated additional newborn lives saved in the year 2021 compared to 2020, and a significant difference noted that same year on estimates based on ‘actual’ versus ‘target’ coverage rates of antenatal care and institutional delivery in Nepal, may reflect an indirect impact of reduced coverage of pregnancy and childbirth interventions on neonatal mortality during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.