32 - Energy Transition Toward Paris Targets in China

Abstract

In China there are already multiple national strategies set up for energy transition, GHG mitigation. Energy transition was proposed in 12th Five Year Plan, and again strongly pushed by “Energy Revolution” announced by President Xi Jinping in 2014. In Paris Agreement, there are targets setups for 2100 to be well below 2°C, with ambitious target on 1.5°C. China signed the agreement, and will support the global target. In the meantime, large scale actions were initiated in 2013 by the national action plan on air pollution control for the period from 2013 to 2017. None of these strategies has clear long-term target. In our studies, energy transition will be decided by the long-term target of CO2 emission reduction, air pollutant reduction, and energy security. This paper will present the analysis from IPAC model, by setting up reduction target for CO2 emission under the global 2°C and 1.5°C target. Energy transition, CO2 emission will be given based on these targets. From the results, there will be a significant energy transition by large scale use of renewable energy, nuclear, share of coal will be reduced to less than 20% in 2050 from 66% in 2015.