3 - Ultra-low-cost carrier network volatility in Europe: unlocking and disconnecting regions

Abstract

Using Official Airline Guide schedules analyzer data, this chapter sheds light on the pre-COVID-19 pandemic ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) network developments in Europe at the country and the airport level. It examines the existence of increased route churn (De Wit and Zuidberg, 2016) on both secondary and small airports in Europe as a result of recent moves of ULCCs to rather primary airports. The results show that, with some exceptions, secondary airports are losing traffic relatively to primary airports in the same multi-airport region. In particular, Ryanair is cutting back frequencies at small airports (less than two million passengers annually) in Western Europe. In Central and Eastern Europe, there is no remarkable difference between the development of ultra-low-cost carrier traffic at large and small airports. The findings imply that, in general, secondary and small airports are likely to face increasing ULCC route churn. This could have potential effects on the connectivity and accessibility of specific European regions and on the regions' local consumer welfare and social and economic development. Paradoxically, whereas ULCCs have been instrumental for the rise of several secondary and small airports throughout Europe, they may also cause the demise of some of them in the near future. This development will likely be further influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.