3. Food Supplies and Prices

Sources of recent inflationary pressures and interlinkages between food and non-food prices in Ethiopia

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

The pervasive effects of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) have put the world to test. Its effects permeate all facets of life including healthcare services and food supplies. However, most empirical studies failed to investigate its effects on the prices of food and healthcare services, which by all standards, are essential commodities. On this background, this study evaluates the impact of COVID-19 reported cases and lockdown stringency measures on the food and healthcare prices in the six (6) worst-affected countries. For empirical purposes, daily prices of food and healthcare services between 22nd January and 31st December 2020 were regressed against daily cases of COVID-19 and lockdown stringency measures within the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag procedure. Empirical evidences reveal that prices of healthcare and food are cointegrated with COVID-19 cases and lockdown measures in all the selected countries except Italy. Equally, healthcare and food prices reinforced itself in the long-run in the US, the UK and France. Furthermore, COVID-19 cases lead to significant increases in food and healthcare prices in the US, whereas, food and healthcare prices in France and UK declined significantly as COVID-19 cases mount. Conversely, food and healthcare prices declined significantly in the US and soar in France and the UK in reactions to COVID-19 new cases. Likewise, government stringency measures and containment health measures contributed significantly to healthcare and food price hike in the US and France respectively. Meanwhile, healthcare and food prices in the other selected countries remained unaffected even as the pandemic ravages. Following this empirical discoveries, relevant policy guidelines have been communicated.

Rhona Robert N. Rapoport Janice Bumstead Working couples 1978 R.K.P. £2.50

Global Food Security—Introduction

Background: Food security is a major concern in Indonesia’s economy, influenced by agricultural productivity, food prices, and population growth. Instability in food supply and price fluctuations threaten national food security. An Islamic economic perspective offers additional insights, emphasizing justice and equitable food distribution.Aims: This study aims to analyze the impact of agricultural productivity, food prices (especially rice), and population size on Indonesia’s food security from 2013 to 2022, using an Islamic economic framework to generate policy recommendations for sustainable food security.Methods: A quantitative approach is used with time-series data from BPS and related sources. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine both short- and long-term dynamics among the variables: agricultural productivity, rice prices, population size, and the food security index.Results: In the short term, agricultural productivity negatively affects food security due to yield instability. Higher rice prices positively impact food security by encouraging local production and competitiveness. Population growth, however, reduces food security by increasing demand. In the long term, both agricultural productivity and rice prices negatively affect food security, while population size shows a positive impact, possibly due to labor supply and market expansion. Conclusion: The study concludes that agricultural productivity, food prices, and population size influence food security in Indonesia differently in the short and long term. From an Islamic economic perspective, sustainable food security can be achieved through equitable welfare and fair distribution of food. Policies that promote increased agricultural productivity, food price stabilization, and sustainable population management are essential to ensuring sufficient food availability for all sectors of society. Therefore, the government must formulate policies that are more adaptive to demographic and economic changes to maintain Indonesia's food security.

Unpredictable fluctuations in food prices have direct impact on household's income, which negatively affect dietary intake while raising the risk of malnutrition. The objective of the study was to determine the food price effects on dietary intake of pre-primary children in low-income peri- urban households in Eldoret municipality. A descriptive survey was used with a sample size of 399 low-income households. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data from caregivers. Majority of the respondents, 282 (70.6%) were married. About 279(69.9%) had tertiary level education. Most (140(35.2%)) of the households had a monthly wage above Kenya Shillings (KShs) 21000, KShs 16000-20000 at 103(25.8%) with only 15(3.7%) having wage of KShs 1000 to 5000. Majority of households 257(64.6%) had more than 4 members. About 332(83.2%) of the households consumed 3 meals a day. Only 174 (43.6%) of the households consumed snacks during the day. Over half of the respondents, 334 (83.60%) had made major changes in their dietary intake over the past one year. Majority 375 (94.3%) significantly increased intake of staple foods while reducing the number of meals taken a day 280 (70.2%) as a result of increased food prices. Household head unemployment, increased household expenditure and decline in food supplies from friends and relatives all indicated a statistically significant association with the quality of dietary intake (p-value=0.00). Linear logistic regression analysis showed that change in the food price negatively affected the dietary intake at p=0.446. Furthermore, decrease in food supplies from friends and relatives led to decrea sed quality and adequacy of diet taken by the households and vice versa (p-value<0.05). From the findings, food prices affected the dietary intake of pre-primary children in low-income households. The study recommends that the government should cushion the populace against hunger by giving money monthly to low income and vulnerable household to enable them meet their dietary needs. It should also enforce existing policies that protect consumers against unpredictable food price spikes in the country.

Non-grain fuel ethanol expansion and its effects on food security: A computable general equilibrium analysis for China

Food supply and demand chains are susceptible to global shocks. Unstable and sudden food price hikes cause serious malnutrition problems and increase the number of food-insecure people, especially in developing countries. Using the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), this study makes one of the first attempts to utilize monthly observations of the FFPI in dynamic time series ARDL and ARX settings to identify the effects of food prices on COVID-19 infection rates and the 2008 global financial crisis. Our empirical findings confirm that the financial crisis significantly increased the FFPI, although its effects decreased as markets equilibrated between 2007 and 2009. The pandemic has had a mild impact on food prices in the short run compared to the 2008 crisis, but in the long run, the COVID-19 outbreak has a larger impact, with 1 million new COVID-19 infections associated with an increase of between 0.0464 and 0.0509 points in the FFPI. Food price volatility and hikes, even if short-term, increase poverty, malnutrition, and food insecurity, foster social unrest, and lower people’s living standards. This research implies that food prices are globally sensitive to both pandemics and financial crises, and the severity of the pandemic can drive global food prices higher, depending on the number of infections. Over the long run, the impact of the outbreak surpasses that of the financial crisis. The latter tends to have a major impact on food prices in the short run but subsequently declines as markets begin to equilibrate, reflecting asymmetries between the two phenomena in their effects on food prices. Overall, the results indicate that the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic had a short-run, immediate, augmenting impact on food prices. However, while the 2008 crisis affected the supply side only, COVID-19 had impacts on both the demand and supply sides.

The government implements a price control policy to protect producers and consumers while simultaneously reducing the rate of inflation by providing subsidies to companies that produce basic necessities and newly developing companies to reduce production costs so they can compete with imported products. The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of government policy on food prices in North Maluku (North Maluku Province, Ternate City and Central Halmahera Regency. Analyze the influence of government policy on food supply in North Maluku. And analyze the influence of government policy on people's purchasing power in North Maluku. The method used in this research is a descriptive method with a simple quantitative and qualitative approach. The research results which have been analyzed with Part Least Square (PLS), using the SmartPLS 4 application tool, show that Government Policy Intervention has a real or significant effect on Food Prices in the City. Ternate and Central Halmahera Regency, then (H1: accepted). So it can be explained that there is a direct influence of government policy intervention variables on food prices in Ternate City and Central Halmahera Regency. Government Policy Intervention has no real effect on Food Supply in Ternate City and Regency Central Halmahera has no real effect or (H0: rejected). And Government Policy Intervention has no real effect on People's Purchasing Power or (H0: rejected). In conclusion, government policy has a significant impact on food prices in the North Maluku region. For this reason, it needs to be optimized through subsidy policies, price regulation, distribution and logistics, agricultural support, and import management. The government also needs to make efforts to ensure the availability of sufficient food supplies at affordable prices for the community. With the right policies, local governments can help stabilize food prices and increase food security in the North Maluku region.Keywords: Government Policy, Food Prices, North Maluku

The nutrition transition literature has generally drawn on epidemiologic and demographic changes to make its argument, because in many cases broader data are not available on the drivers of nutrition change. Going further, this paper draws on wider food systems literature, and includes food price and expenditure data, to join the dots from macroeconomic and food system change to food sources, production, and price; to household-level expenditures; to changing diets and nutrition and health outcomes, illustrated through the case of Zambia. Many of the economic and demographic drivers of the nutrition transition are present in Zambia, including rising GDP, high urbanization and increasing supermarket penetration. Food supply data show a reduction in calories available per capita over several decades, and low levels of nutrient-rich plant and animal source foods which make up a diverse, nutritious diet. National food price data show that while the cost of food has reduced overall, nutrient-rich foods are more expensive relative to staple foods over time. Expenditure on staple foods has reduced in the past two decades while spending on fruits and vegetables, animal source foods, fats and sugars, and processed foods has increased, with these change greater in rural areas in recent years, but already more advanced in urban areas. Finally, while undernutrition is reducing slowly from very high levels and hunger persists, overweight and obesity and non-communicable chronic diseases are increasing; and data are strikingly lacking on modern Zambian diets. The Zambia case study is placed within regional and global trends to illustrate nutrition transition changes that are now happening in rapidly changing lower-middle income countries. Policy responses include promoting the availability of diverse nutrient-dense foods, and concurrent attention to preventing under- and over-nutrition in surveillance and policy. This paper also sheds light on the gaps in information that would greatly improve our understanding of the food system drivers of the nutrition transition, and hence our ability to create relevant policy.

One of the most important impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic that broke out in China in the last months of 2019 was on the agricultural sector and, consequently, on the food supply. This situation manifested itself in an increase in food insecurity and food prices in countries around the world, and rising food prices highlighted the risk of undernourishment. The study attempted to statistically represent the impact of the pandemic on food security and food price increases in countries around the world. The study first compared the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in terms of three basic indicators, such as food security, food prices, and undernourishment rates, and examined whether there was a significant difference between the two periods. Within the context of these three indicators, an attempt was then made to determine whether the negative impact of the pandemic was more severe in low-income countries. The results of the analysis showed that food prices, food insecurity, and undernourishment increased during the pandemic and that these impacts were relatively greater in developing countries. Therefore, the financial burden of these negative impacts associated with food supply was greater in developing countries.

The Relationship between Diet Costs and Dietary Adequacy: A Scoping Review of Measures and Methods with a Focus on Cost Estimation using Food Supply Data.

Currently the world is facing a phenomenon, a fast-spreading disease named ‘2019 Novel Coronavirus’(COVID-19). It has spread approximately 215 countries around the world and is affecting the health and economic condition widely. To effectively control the situation nationwide lockdown was implemented in Bangladesh following WHO’s instructions. That lead to nationwide panic buying, stockpiling, circulation of misinformation and a sense of food insecurity at local level. Most of the people of Bangladesh depends on agricultural sector and this pandemic created severe crisis for this sector. The magnitude of the crisis fluctuates from place to place in Bangladesh. This study focuses on the specific case of capital city Dhaka which is the most affected area and where the farmer consumer alliance was reportedly disrupted and panic stockpiling was highest. Based on formal interviews with local government officials, the situation of urban-rural food transfer and the consequent government initiatives for maintaining food supply and public health was studied. Then this paper assessed the perceived food security of participants, price at local market level along with online surveys while the city residents were under partial lockdown during pandemic. The study founded that the food insecurity was increased and respondent reported some basic foods prices were higher than usual. Also, the farmer consumer alliance was greatly hampered because of economic shutdown with the restriction of travel which has created an imbalance between demand and supply of food. It also detected that day laborer, marginal and poor people, vulnerable women and children are mostly affected. These findings have policy implication both at farmer and ultimate consumer level addressing the short term and long-term factors, related to food security, price and farmer consumer alliance in Bangladesh.

Nations around the world are currently confronting an unprecedented financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market. Despite extensive support from governments and monetary authorities, the financial meltdown has already taken a heavy toll on the world economy, with more economic hardship predicted for the immediate future. The crisis came at a time when the leading G7 economies were already slowing due to skyrocketing energy and commodity prices. Developing countries, and in particular the least developed, already reeling under sharp hikes in food and fuel prices, now face the daunting prospect of losing hard-won gains in economic development, poverty alleviation, and political stability.In fact, before the financial crisis hit, many developing countries were in the midst of a wrenching food and fuel crisis. Overall, global food prices had increased by a whopping 83 percent over the 36 months leading up to February 2008. The current financial crisis has only exacerbated the problem. To sound the alarm, the World Bank issued an unprecedented urgent warning in April 2008 to the internal community that skyrocketing food prices were threatening recent gains against global hunger and poverty. More ominously, the bank warned of political instability and violence if the problems were not immediately addressed. Indeed, throughout the first six months of 2008, mass rioting over food shortages and spiralling costs occurred regularly in many countries, including Bangladesh, Mexico, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Haiti, Indonesia, Cameroon, Peru, Pakistan, Somalia, Brazil, Guinea, Mauritania, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan, Yemen, and Argentina, among others. In the halls of national governments and organizations like the United Nations and the World Bank, there was palpable concern that the dramatic rise in inflation (driven by high food prices) not only has the potential to dramatically reverse the gains in global poverty reduction, but also to lead to political instability - a recruiting ground for terrorism and criminality. This is because food price inflation is the most regressive of all taxes as it hurts vast sections of the populace, especially the teeming urban poor. Crowded in slums, the urban poor are forced to spend a high proportion of their incomes (anywhere from 70 to 80 percent) on food. This means that sharp price hikes cut viciously into what little they have left for other necessary expenses like healthcare, education for their children, and shelter.Like the financial crisis, the severity of the food crisis caught governments around the world by surprise. This confusion and unpreparedness was vividly reflected by the former leader of the world's richest and most powerful nation, US President George W. Bush, whose initial reaction was to blame developing countries implicitly for the crisis by noting that when poor countries like India and China prosper, they start demanding better nutrition and better food.. .and when demand is high, that causes the price to go up. Of course Bush was hardly alone in holding this view, yet it is deeply flawed and carries serious negative policy implications. A more nuanced understanding of the roots of the global food crisis, its broader socioeconomic and political implications - including its linkages with the global financial crisis - and what individual countries and the international community can do to mitigate this serious threat to human security is urgent. The following pages attempt to do just that.THE REASONSThe reality is that the global food crisis has multiple roots. First, it is important to recognize that food shortages do not necessarily imply a sharp drop in available food supplies - at least not worldwide. Rather, the problem has much to do with access and affordability. As Nobel laureate Amartya Sen points out in his classic Poverty and Famines, there has never been an acute shortage of food in India - not even during the infamous famine in Bengal in 1943 in which some 1. …