#2679 Prediction of acute eGFR decline after first initiation of RASI inhibitors and its impact on clinical outcomes

Abstract

Abstract Background and Aims The objective of this study is to investigate the correlation between acute eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) decline after initiation of ACEI (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor)/ARB (angiotensin receptor blocker) medications and clinical outcomes in a real-world setting. Additionally, we aim to establish a risk prediction model to identify high-risk individuals who are more likely to experience a rapid decline in eGFR after drug initiation. Method A total of 2026 adult new users of ACEI/ARB were selected from the China Renal Data System (CRDS). Patients in acute clinical states and those using nephrotoxic drugs were excluded, and it was required that patients had at least one creatinine measurement during the baseline period and one week to four weeks after drug initiation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the relative risks of adverse long-term outcomes in patients with different degrees of acute eGFR decline. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed to analyze the factors influencing acute eGFR decline. Lasso regression was used to select predictive factors, resulting in a logistic regression model with 18 predictive factors. Results Among the 2026 patients, 1148 (57%), 473 (23%), and 405 (20%) experienced eGFR decline <5% or increase, 5-20% decline, and ≥20% decline, respectively, after initiation of RASI (renin-angiotensin system inhibitor). Following adjustment for multiple variables, an eGFR decline ≥20% was found to be associated with a higher risk of long-term renal disease progression, with a hazard ratio of 1.84 (95% confidence interval 1.19-2.85), but not significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events. Factors associated with an eGFR decline ≥20% after RASI initiation included higher BMI and Charlson index, more severe proteinuria, lower hemoglobin levels, presence of hypertension, diabetic nephropathy, arrhythmias, and concomitant use of thiazide diuretics or loop diuretics. The predictive model had a C-statistic of 0.75. Conclusion This study demonstrates that a short-term eGFR decline after RASI initiation is associated with a higher risk of long-term renal disease progression but not significantly associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events. We have developed a prediction model to estimate the risk of eGFR decline ≥20% after the initial use of RASI, which can aid clinicians in identifying patients with poorer renal outcomes following RASI initiation and facilitate timely intervention.