#267 “Surprise question”, malnutrition, frailty, and health-related quality of life in predicting mortality in a cohort of haemodialysis patients

Abstract

Abstract Background and Aims “Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next year (or six months)?” This question by a medical staff is called “surprise question” (SQ) and the answer “no” (SQ-No) was shown to predict a higher risk of mortality. However, it is unknown what is intuitively assessed by this question. We examined whether SQ is assessing the patient's malnutrition, frailty, or self-perceived health-related quality of life in haemodialysis patients. Method We analysed data from 994 patients on maintenance haemodialysis who participated in the Osaka Dialysis Complication Study (ODCS). Attending nurses answered to SQ. Malnutrition was evaluated by Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI). Frailty was assessed by a modified CHS criteria. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was examined by SF36 physical component summary (PCS). The associations of these exposures with 5-year all-cause mortality (ACM) were analysed by Cox proportional hazards model. Results Median of age and dialysis vintage was 66 and 5.9 years, 35.8% were female, and 39.6% had diabetic kidney disease. The prevalence of SQ-No and frailty was 19.7% and 46.2%. Medians of GNRI and SF36 PCS were 96.3 and 46.2, respectively. During follow-up, 250 patients died. Each of SQ-No, a low GNRI, being frail, and a low SF36 PCS was a significant predictor of a higher risk for ACM independent of potential confounders. SQ-No remained a significant predictor after further adjustment for GNRI or frailty, but SQ-No was no longer significant when adjusted for SF36 PCS. Conclusion Predictive ability of SQ was closely related to SF36 PCS in haemodialysis patients. SQ by nurses appears to assess patient-perceived health-related quality of life rather than objectively assessed malnutrition or frailty.