2319. Clinical Predictors of Influenza and Hospitalization of Children with Influenza in an Emergent Care Setting

Abstract

BackgroundObjective measures utilizing early vital sign data show promise in predicting more severe outcomes among adults with influenza, but data are sparse in children. The objectives of this study were to determine the value of vital signs in predicting influenza infection or hospitalization due to influenza infection among children evaluated in an emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) setting in Colorado.MethodsWe evaluated vital signs obtained from a prospective cohort study of children aged 6 months to 8 years of age with influenza like illness evaluated at an ED/UC site in Aurora, CO from 2016–2018, and who underwent influenza testing by PCR. We collected the first set of vital signs, peak heart rate and temperature, and converted heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) to z-scores by age. HR z scores were further adjusted for temperature. Bivariable analyses for each vital sign as a predictor of influenza-related hospitalization and influenza infection as main outcomes were conducted. Predictors with P < 0.2 were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model to determine odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI; model performance was assessed using the Brier score and discriminative ability with the C statistic.ResultsAmong 1478 children, 411 were positive for influenza, of which 28 were hospitalized. In multivariable analyses, among children with influenza infection, lower initial oxygen saturation (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78–0.98, P = 0.026) and higher adjusted respiratory rate (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.21–3.61, P = 0.0085) were significant predictors of hospitalization (Figure 1). Among children with ILI, higher peak temperature (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30–1.63, P < 0.0001), lower adjusted peak heart rate (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.69–0.90, P = 0.0005), higher initial oxygen saturation (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03–1.12 P = 0.002) and lower adjusted respiratory rate (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.64–0.87, P = 0.0002) were significant predictors for having PCR-confirmed influenza. However, this model had poor calibration and discriminatory ability.ConclusionHigher respiratory rate adjusted for age and lower initial oxygen saturation were significant predictors of hospitalization among young children with PCR-confirmed influenza, but were not reliable discriminators of having influenza infection. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.