2303 持続可能社会に向けたシナリオ設計支援方法論の提案

Abstract

Drawing images of sustainable manufacturing is a highly important problem for manufacturing industry. For this problem, "scenario development" is seen as an effective means In scenario development, the developers consider several future visions and transition paths qualitatively and quantitatively. In spite of effectiveness of scenario development, it is difficult and exhaustive task. In order to tackle this problem, referring the ideas of design engineering, we propose a new concept of "scenario design" and develop a scenario design support method. We defined the scenario design as a set of procedures for developing a scenario grouped into plotting, describing, and evaluating. Based on this concept, we proposed a computable scenario model and proposed a scenario design process. The proposed model includes sub models expressing intermediate states between the motivation for developing scenario and a documented scenario. The proposed design process includes four steps in which the scenario is designed in stepwise manner. As an implementation, we proposed a backcasting scenario design support method and developed backcasting scenario design support system. As a case study, using proposed method and support system, we designed Sustainable Manufacturing Scenario, in which economically and environmentally sustainable futures of Japanese manufacturing industry is envisioned. Through the case study, the effectiveness of the proposed design method and support system is verified.