2186. Risk Factors to predict one-year Community-Acquired Pneumonia in a Low-Middle Income Country: A Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Abstract Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the principal cause of mortality due to infectious diseases globally. Some risk factors have been identified for CAP, such as age, smoking, environmental exposures, malnutrition, previous CAP, chronic bronchitis/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, functional impairment, poor dental health, and immunosuppressive therapy, among others. However, these studies were conducted in high-income countries and patients without comorbid conditions. Therefore, we aimed to identify the risk factors associated with CAP development within a one-year follow-up in a prospective cohort of patients with comorbid conditions in Colombia. Table 1.Logistic Regression Analysis Methods This prospective cohort of adult patients with chronic comorbidities between 2020-and 2022 in Bogotá, Colombia. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression model were developed to identify the variables associated with CAP development within a one-year follow-up. The logistic regression model included variables with a p-value<0.20 in the univariate analysis. Results A total of 810 patients were included in the program. Median [IQR] age was 63 [53-62] and the most common comorbidities were 52.2% [423/810] arterial hypertension, 21.7% [176/810] coronary disease, and 19.0% [154/810] congestive heart failure. To date, 678 follow-ups have been made. Thirty-four patients died before the 6-month follow-up, and 46 were lost, leaving 598 patients included in the analysis. The cumulative incidence of CAP was 4.3% [26/598] during one year. After adjusting the logistic regression model, the main risk factors associated with pneumonia development were COPD [OR 4.30, 95% CI 1.66-11.11, p< 0.01], and previous antibiotic treatment [OR 4.08, 95% CI 1.08-15.29, p=0.04] (Table 1). Conclusion Patients with a history of COPD or previous antibiotic treatment have a more than 300% higher risk of developing pneumonia within one year. Robust vaccination programs for adults are needed in Colombia. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures.