Abstract
Looking ahead to the coming “high death-rate society,” this study develops a theoretical formula of the demand for in-home end-of-life care. Using this formula, it estimates the demand for end-of-life care in Japan by prefecture in 2040. The data used are the population of Japan’s 47 prefectures from 2006 to 2012, the total number of deaths, breakdown of deaths in hospitals, homes, and other places, bed utilization rate, number of beds per 100,000 persons, average stay in hospitals (days), and number of discharged patients. These data were gathered from sources including the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s population surveys and hospital reports. Next, demand for end-of-life care was estimated based on four future scenario patterns. Furthermore, the shortage of in-home care support clinics and hospitals was calculated.
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