2030 Energy Pathways in Côte d’Ivoire: “A Business as Usual” Analysis

Abstract

Forecasting future energy demand values is of paramount importance for proper resource planning. This paper examines energy outlook for the coming decade in Côte d’Ivoire presented as a business as usual scenario. We, therefore, build a forecasting model using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to estimate primary energy demand and energy demand by fuels. The results indicate that energy demand will increase steadily within the forecasted period (2017-2030). However, the annual growth rate of each fuel,, including the primary energy demand item, will first rise from the year 1990 to the year 2016 and then decrease within the forecasted period except hydropower that will experience a steady increase from 1990 to 2030. Furthermore, it is noticed that the energy structure of the country will still be biofuels (fuelwood and charcoal) intensive with a significant presence of conventional sources of energy. Based on these findings, we propose some policy recommendations.