Abstract
The issue of substitutability between various modes of import protection has been studied by economists in various ways. Since President Donald Trump came into office and soon started imposing tariffs, the need by US firms to file antidumping (AD) cases would seem to have been reduced. We explain quarterly US AD filings, based on data from 1995 through 2016, and then predict US AD petitions for 2017 and 2018. We reject a hypothesis of substitution away from AD in the Trump era of general protectionism, but do find some support for the notion that protection moves downstream, with greater than predicted AD filings in downstream metals sectors.
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