2012 엘니뇨의 발달 분석

Abstract

Using various observed data, we examined the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during 2011-2012, with focusing on the development of 2012 El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o. It is observed that a La Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>a event during 2011 was followed by a moderate El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o during 2012 summer. The 2012 summer El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o initiated near the west coast of South America on February 2012, and continued to expand westward till August. Given this evolutionary pattern, the 2012 summer El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o can be categorized as 'Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o' because Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o-3 index is greater than Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o-4 index, and it may be the first well-defined EP El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o since 2001. On February 2012, this event was initiated mainly by the local air-sea interaction, and at the same time the ocean heat content was accumulated over the tropical western Pacific due to the easterly wind anomaly over the tropical western Pacific. Then, the accumulated heat content slowly propagates to the tropical eastern Pacific, which attributes to maintain El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o state during 2012 summer. After August, the positive SST anomaly over the equatorial eastern Pacific decays possibly due to the exhausted heat content and the weakening of air-sea interaction, but the weak positive SST anomaly over the central Pacific remains till now (2012 November).