東北亞安全戰略關係之研究（2001-2006）─權力轉移理論觀點的分析

Abstract

To analyze and comment on the evolution of strategic relations in Northeast Asia, the thesis focuses on three aspects: regional power structure, dynamics of power and strategic thinking of Great power, and the management policy for preserving regional order. First of all, following the ‘911 incident’in 2001, the U.S.A launched the war and declared victory in succession. However, through 2006, the economic cost, the pinning down of troops and the criticism of the international community has resulted in unfavorable effects on the international status and influence of U.S.A. Meanwhile, China maintains a high economic development rate, expands the modernization of its military, and improves its international influence. Furthermore, Japan makes use of the fact of ‘the rise of China’ to gain more support from U.S.A., revises the law to lessen restrictions on external action, and strengthens its military arms with the justification of needing to bear the security of the area more responsibly. Second, because the rise of China has already shaken American influence, and China will overtake Japan as the Great power in this region, transitions in the regional power structure have to be faced. Therefore, the U.S.A. and Japan cooperate in strengthening regional security, while successively adopting a foreign policy of friendly association with China, too. To these ends, the U.S.A. and Japan have attempted to promote China into the current corporate international order, encouraging China to shoulder the responsibility of being a major world power; thereby reducing the threat that a rising China presents. For its part China, in a key period of rise, knows very well that it must safeguard the environment of its steady and peaceful rise, accept pursuing domestic reform, adopt a friendly diplomatic policy to stabilize neighboring countries, and cultivate influence externally. Third, though the U.S.A. hesitates to get involved in the Sino-Japanese East China Sea dispute, to 'maintain peace and stability ' is a common understanding on the question of the Taiwan Straits. On the North Korean Nuclear Issue, six-party talks still go on continuously so that the situation does not out of control. In alliances management, preparation for the establishment of a regional Economic Cooperation Organization of East Asia would be meaningful but a great deal of restrictions and challenges are waiting to be overcome. Finally, the U.S.A’s present goal to cooperate with Japan to prevent China’s expansion of force could be complicated by Japan’s own resumption of economical growth in recent years and the strengthening of the armed forces. Japan’s ‘re-rise' definitely adds parameters to the regional order of Northeast Asia.