影響中國鋼鐵產量因素之研究:以2000-2007年之Panel Data 實證分析

Abstract

Since 1996, China 's steel production exceeded 100 million tons. China 's steel output has been for 10 consecutive years ranking the first in the world. In 2007 China 's crude steel output reached 489 million tons, nearly to 37% of global production. The amount is not only is the first, but also more than sum of the second to the eighth. The large number of research and discussion attempted to predict demand for steel in China . There is lack of demand factors influencing production of steel and few relations of various regions. So the study uses the Panel Data Models to explore the factors influencing steel consumption on the impact of steel production. This study attempted to clarify the relation of China and global steel price index. Dou Bin (2007) found that China’s and global steel prices have a long-term equilibrium. China's steel price index influence global steel price index, but there is not significantly influence with global steel price index toward China's. We re-examined the relation of China and global steel prices index, and focused that previous steel price index has an impact on current global steel price index. Through useing of vector auto-regression model and Linear Regression models, this study explored the impact of the previous and current global steel price index and China's previous steel index on the current China's steel price index. Empirical study found that the regional economic development, fixed asset investment and industrial output value have are very significant differences on increase of steel production. However, there is not significant. The most significant influencing factor is the proportion of secondary industry that greater positive impacts on steel production. Finally, China and the world steel price index in a two-way interaction between, and the impact of China 's steel price index factors would affect the global steel price index. This study suggested that the influencing factors of global and Chinese steel price index are the rise of international raw materials; Secondly, the influencing factors of China and the global steel price index factors are their own price index for the previous period.