2. The Geography of Fertility in India (1981-1991)

Abstract

The fertility decline in India that began over 25 years ago has gained sufficient momentum to overtake the mortality decline resulting in a slowing of natural increase. This work traces the fertility decline from a geographic perspective viewing adoption of smaller ideal family sizes contraception and fertility decline as an example of diffusion. Regional fertility differentials appear to have been minimal before independence while recent statistics show a doubling of fertility between states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu with near replacement-level fertility and the large Hindi speaking states of Utter Pradesh Bihar Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. To assess the degree of heterogeneity of fertility behaviors within states ratios of the number of children under age 7 per reproductive-age woman were calculated from the 1991 census furnishing data at the district level for the 14 largest states. A graphic analysis of the central tendencies of intraregional variance between districts of a single state suggests that the degree of heterogeneity in fertility levels within states differs significantly. It also confirms the contrasts in fertility levels between the 2 low-fertility southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu and the 4 northern states of Bihar Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh where fertility is significantly higher than in the other 10 large states. Even in states such as Uttar Pradesh with high average fertility the level in some urban districts approaches that of Kerala. Mapping of fertility at the district level based on the 1981 and 1991 censuses suggests that fertility decline began in the periphery along the coasts and in the extreme south and spread progressively to encircle the region around the Ganges Valley the heart of traditional India where fertility has scarcely declined as yet. This Hindi-speaking region is characterized by high fertility a vigorous patriarchal value system pronounced economic underdevelopment importance of Brahmins and exclusion of women in education and employment.