2 Provincial Disparities in Changes in Fertility and Related Implications

Abstract

The time series data of provincial TFRs show that provinces in China have been quite different in their onset timing and the progression of fertility changes, despite the fact that significant declines in fertility rates have been observed from the early 1970s at the national level. Early studies show that socio-economic factors and national fertility policy have independent impacts on fertility transition, and they also interact with each other in determining transition trajectory. The converging trends in provincial fertility changes and the declining role of the initial driving forces since 1990 give support to the conclusion that fertility transition is diffusive. The transitional differences across provinces have led to substantial variation in provincial age structures. The provinces having a policy fertility rate of around 1.5 have a relatively higher population sex imbalance. In addition to the great increase of only-child families, an increasing number of families experience empty-nest stage earlier. Keywords: age structure; family structure; fertility transition; provincial fertility; sex ratio