1993/1994년을 기점으로 나타난 한반도 여름철 강수량 변동의 종관기후학적 원인

Abstract

In this study, an investigation has been carried out to understand 1) temporal variation of rainfall amount in summer over south Korea during the 30-year period of 1979-2008 and 2) the relationship between the variation of rainfall amount and the change of large-scale monsoon circulation around 1993/1994 over East Asia. The analysis of rainfall amount is carried out separately for whole summer (June-August), climatological Changma period of 23 June-23 July, and August to consider variations within summer. To relate the variation of rainfall amount with the change of large-scale circulation, we have considered two 15-year periods of 1979-1993 and 1994-2008. This study has used observations at 58 stations in South Korea and NCEP-NCAR <TEX>$2.5^{\circ}{\times}2.5^{\circ}$</TEX> reanalysis data. The major change in synoptic environment for the Changma period is characterized by the intensified anticyclone over Mongolia during 1994-2008, which results in a weak meridional oscillation of Changma front. As a result, rainfall amount for the Changma period and the frequency of extreme events have significantly increased after 1993/1994. A major change of synoptic environment for August is the significant westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high, which allows not only more moisture transports but also stronger cyclonic circulation over the Korean peninsula. Rainfall amount for August and frequency of extreme events have also increased after 1993/1994. However, variability of rainfall amount is larger for August than that for the Changma period, with some years showing very dry August (monthly rainfall amount less than 150 mm).