貧窮持續時間的動態分析：以嘉義縣1990-1998年之低收入戶爲例

Abstract

Most poverty research operates from a similar perspective, looking at the conditions of people during poverty. However, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics revealed that only a small number of welfare recipients receive it for an extended period, and a great number of welfare recipients receive it for only a short time. This has now become a focal point of further poverty research. Based on panel data from Chia-Yi County during the 1990-1998 period, we analyzed the duration of poverty spells and the distributions of completed and uncompleted spells of poverty. We also report results of our analysis on factors affecting escape from poverty among these households. The results of our analysis indicate that the median duration of poverty was 4.69 years, when cohort-based estimates were used. When the data on the spells of poor households was used, the median spell of poverty was estimated to be 3.97 years long. More than 50 percent of poor households escaped poverty within 4 years and only one-quarter of poor households were in poverty for over eight years. The results of comparing the completed and the uncompleted spells show that among the former the duration tended to be shorter than the latter. Among the completed spells, more than 30 percent of them ended within 2 years. However, at any given point in time, the bulk of poor households were those experiencing a relatively long-term hou t of poverty. When the proportional hazard model was used, the age of the heads of households, the number of years of schooling, and health status were found to be important factors contributing to the possibility of leaving poverty. Among the household characteristics, we found that the single-parent households and the number of household members with the ability to work directly affect the probability of leaving poverty.