探討技術變遷的週期循環：1976-2003年之顯示器技術發展

Abstract

Recent years have seen increasing acceptance of the paradox of technology and innovation management. Paradox is inevitable, as the conflicting trends between order and disorder, continuity and radical change are prevalent in the high-tech environment. In reality, however, the distinction between order and disorder, continuity and disruption is disruption to assess. Most studies have taken one of the two stances by explaining either that technological change is determined by the social pressures, or created by the risk-taking entrepreneurs who are able to change and control their environment. The literature's emphasis on a disorder-order dichotomy allows us to address one of the significant gaps in the literature, its broad neglect of disorder-order linkages. This paper uses chaos theory for the design and measurement of disorder-order linkages, chaos theory was a new science in the 1970s, developed to reveal the fine and orderly structure out of a disorderly stream, Concerned with finding order in disorder and separating structure from disruption, chaos theory persuades us to think of the technological change process as evolving linkages of disorder and order over a long tune period Application of chaos then, to the social science varies widely In this paper, our approach can be divided into tam a steps. The first step is a mathematical one, centered on the use of time-varying Lyapunov exponents to search for disorder-order linkages. Secondly and on the basis of the first-step yes tilts, we apply an interpretation approach to accounting for industry dynamics in the real word In order to illustrate a chaotic phenomenon of disorder-order linkages, we empirically study the evolution of display technology from 1976 to 2003. Our study makes important contributions to the literature Specifically, we extend existing technological research from either heroic logics of revolution or the particular constraints of institution to a dynamic, interactive analysis that allows for disorder at the same time as order. This analysis advances our understanding of technological change as cycles or repeated patterns of disorder-order linkages. Just as van de van and Rogers (1988:638) argue, a satisfactory technological change model should move beyond ”a stage-to-stage conception of the innovation process, to a dynamic, continuous conception of change over time”. Using chaos theory to inform issues of disorder and order in high-tech technology evolution, our study approaches technological change ”by loops rather than by lines” (Pettigrew, 1990:10) and practically illustrates this idea by display technology change process. Analysis of disorder-order linkages is also important to practicing managers, in that periods of technological change condition the source of environmental opportunities and munificence that are central to entrepreneurship and innovation.