1961~2010年黑河流域极端气温变化特征分析

Abstract

本文利用黑河流域内9个气象站1961~2010年的极端温度资料，运用气候倾向率和Mann- Kendall趋势检验法对流域的年、季极端最高气温和极端最低气温进行了分析研究。结果表明，在年变化上，近50a黑河流域极端气温总体上呈上升趋势，且极端最低气温的变化幅度明显大于极端最高气温的变化幅度，其中山丹站极端最低气温的上升倾向率达到了0.95℃/10a；流域下游地区的年极端最低气温变化幅度较中上游大部分地区显著。在年代际变化上，流域年极端最低气温上升趋势大体始于70年代，而年极端最高气温上升趋势始于80年代末。流域的极端温度变化趋势存在着明显的季节性差异，极端最高气温变化最显著的季节是冬季，极端最低气温变化最显著的季节是秋季。 Based on the measured extreme temperatures of 9 stations from 1961 to 2010, the changes of an- nual and seasonal extreme temperatures in Heihe River basin were analyzed by using the trend slope and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that the generally increasing trends of annual extreme temperatures occurred all over the basin and the increase of extreme minimum temperatures were greater than those of extreme maximum temperatures, especially the extreme minimum temperature in Shandan station with an increasing rate of 0.95˚C/10a. The increase of annual extreme minimum temperatures in lower reaches was greater than those in upper and middle reaches of basin. The extreme minimum temperatures began to increase at the beginning of1970’s, while the extreme maximum temperatures at the end of1980’s. The seasonal differences in trends of extreme temperatures were clear, and the most obvious season was winter in trends of extreme maximum temperatures and autumn in trends of extreme minimum temperatures.