코로나19는 여당 지지율을 상승시켰는가?

Abstract

During the pandemic period, the world underwent significant changes not only in health and economic fields, but also in political ones. European politics also saw substantial changes in supporting rates for the ruling parties, far-right parties, and the main opposition parties. However, in exceptional situations like COVID-19, supporting rates for parties might be influenced more by the crisis itself than by party policies or economic performance. This paper aims to identify the key factors that contributed to the changes of supporting rates for the ruling parties, far-right parties, and the main opposition parties during the two waves of COVID-19 in 2020. A multiple regression analysis was conducted, with the dependent variable of supporting rates for the ruling parties, far-right parties, and the main opposition parties of 30 European countries, including EU member states(excluding Cyprus), Iceland, Norway, the UK, and Scotland, during the first wave, period of pause, and second wave of COVID-19. The independent variables are supporting rates for other parties, health factors such as COVID-19 casualties and confirmed cases, economic factors like GDP growth rate, inflation, total income, and 23 government-imposed lockdown measures of 30 European countries. The analysis revealed following findings. First, the human casualties of COVID-19 did not directly impact supporting rates of parties. The number of deaths per million was only positively correlated with an increase in support for the ruling party during the second wave, likely due to a rallying effect as the pandemic resurged. Second, among the lockdown measures, bans on outdoor activities, restaurant closures, and workplace shutdowns had an impact on the support rates for the ruling parties, far-right parties, and the main opposition parties. Countries that imposed outdoor activity bans for a longer duration experienced a decrease in support for the ruling parties, while far-right and main opposition parties’ supporting rates tended to increase. Third, economic factors continued to influence party support during the pandemic. Countries with higher GDP growth rates, higher total income, and lower unemployment rates during the first and second waves maintained higher supporting rates for the ruling parties. Additionally, during the second wave, countries with rapidly rising unemployment rates had higher supporting rates for far-right parties and the main opposition parties. Through this analysis, it became evident that supporting rates for parties in 30 European countries were influenced more by government-imposed lockdown measures and economic factors than by the direct impact of COVID-19 casualties during the pandemic spread.