코로나19 팬데믹 시기의 국가정책이 국내 관광 소비지출에 미치는 영향

Abstract

Purpose - The infectious disease generally provides a negative impact on the tourism industry. Most prior studies have been focused on examining the size of negative impact on the tourism industry due to the infectious disease. However the number of studies is insufficient that empirically investigate the effect of national policies on various tourism activities under infectious disease pandemic. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of regulatory policy(social distancing) and distributive policy(disaster relief payment) on domestic tourism expenditure under the Covid-19 pandemic. Research Design, data, and methodology - The research design for this study is folded into three parts. First, the VAR model was used to forecast the amount of tourism expenditure by assuming the policy was not implemented. Second, Counter-factual analysis was conducted to confirm the difference between the predicted value and the real value during the policy was implemented. Finally, MAPE was used to compare the effect of national policies. The data used for this study were daily time-series data from January 1, 2019, to August 31, 2020. Result - The empirical results showed that the regulatory policy m a negative effect on tourism expenditure while the distributive policy had a positive effect on tourism expenditure. And regulatory policy and distributive policy had differently influenced on each type of tourism expenditure. Conclusions - Both national policies in terms of regulatory and distribute policy were effectively conducted to achieve each objective of its policies.