18F-FDG-PET Radiomics Based on White Matter Predicts The Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer Disease: A Machine Learning Study

Abstract

To build a model using white-matter radiomics features on positron-emission tomography (PET) and machine learning methods to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer disease (AD). We analyzed the data of 341 MCI patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, of whom 102 progressed to AD during an 8-year follow-up. The patients were divided into the training (238 patients) and test groups (103 patients). PET-based radiomics features were extracted from the white matter in the training group, and dimensionally reduced to construct a psychoradiomics signature (PS), which was combined with multimodal data using machine learning methods to construct an integrated model. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves in the test group. Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scores, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS) scores, and PS independently predicted MCI progression to AD on multivariate logistic regression. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the CDR, ADAS and PS in the training and test groups were 0.683, 0.755, 0.747 and 0.737, 0.743, 0.719 respectively, and were combined using a support vector machine to construct an integrated model. The AUC of the integrated model in the training and test groups was 0.868 and 0.865, respectively (sensitivity, 0.873 and 0.839, respectively; specificity, 0.784 and 0.806, respectively). The AUCs of the integrated model significantly differed from those of other predictors in both groups (p < 0.05, Delong test). Our psych radiomics signature based on white-matter PET data predicted MCI progression to AD. The integrated model built using multimodal data and machine learning identified MCI patients at a high risk of progression to AD.