18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics signature and clinical parameters predict progression-free survival in breast cancer patients: A preliminary study.

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of predicting progression-free survival (PFS) in breast cancer patients using pretreatment 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG PET/CT) radiomics signature and clinical parameters. Breast cancer patients who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging before treatment from January 2012 to December 2020 were eligible for study inclusion. Eighty-seven patients were randomly divided into training (n = 61) and internal test sets (n = 26) and an additional 25 patients were used as the external validation set. Clinical parameters, including age, tumor size, molecular subtype, clinical TNM stage, and laboratory findings were collected. Radiomics features were extracted from preoperative PET/CT images. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operators were applied to shrink feature size and build a predictive radiomics signature. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to assess the association of rad-score and clinical parameter with PFS. Nomograms were constructed to visualize survival prediction. C-index and calibration curve were used to evaluate nomogram performance. Eleven radiomics features were selected to generate rad-score. The clinical model comprised three parameters: clinical M stage, CA125, and pathological N stage. Rad-score and clinical-model were significantly associated with PFS in the training set (P< 0.01) but not the test set. The integrated clinical-radiomics (ICR) model was significantly associated with PFS in both the training and test sets (P< 0.01). The ICR model nomogram had a significantly higher C-index than the clinical model and rad-score in the training and test sets. The C-index of the ICR model in the external validation set was 0.754 (95% confidence interval, 0.726-0.812). PFS significantly differed between the low- and high-risk groups stratified by the nomogram (P = 0.009). The calibration curve indicated the ICR model provided the greatest clinical benefit. The ICR model, which combined clinical parameters and preoperative 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging, was able to independently predict PFS in breast cancer patients and was superior to the clinical model alone and rad-score alone.