18-Year Population Trends Determine Factors Associated with Future Access to Urologists.

Abstract

Our study evaluated urologist availability by United States county since 2000 relative to regional changes in the general population to identify factors associated with access to care. County-level data from 2000, 2010 and 2018 from the Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Census and American Community Survey were analyzed. Availability of urologists by county was defined as urologists per 10,000 adults. Multiple logistic and geographically weighted regression were performed. A predictive model was formulated with tenfold cross-validation (AUC=0.75). Despite a 6.95% increase in urologists over 18 years, local urologist availability declined 13% (-0.03 urologists/10,000 individuals, 95% CI 0.02-0.04, p <0.0001). On multiple logistic regression, metropolitan status was the greatest predictor of urologist availability (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.47-2.34), followed by prior urologist presence (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.16-1.89), defined as a higher number of urologists in 2000. The predictive weight of these factors varied by U.S. region. All regions experienced worsening overall urologist availability, with rural areas suffering the most. Large population shifts away from the Northeast to the West and South were outpaced by urologists leaving the Northeast, the only region with a decreasing number of total urologists (-1.36%). Urologist availability declined in every region over nearly 2 decades likely due to an increasing general population and inequitable regional migration. Predictors of urologist availability differed by region, and thus it will be necessary to investigate regional drivers influencing population shifts and urologist concentration to prevent worsening disparities in care.