15-min Cities: the Potential of a Medium-Sized Polycentric Latin American City.

Abstract

Urban sustainability and sustainable mobility have become the central focus of sustainable development initiatives. The city of 15 models seeks to ensure that urban development is sustainable. This paper evaluates the current state of mobility and the use of sustainable transport in the specific context of the city of Antofagasta, which, due to its characteristics of urban expansion and its mining activity, has been considered an international reference case. In particular, we study how the current urban structure shapes the city's travel patterns and identify opportunities for public policy actions to focus their investment and urban intervention efforts on the essential aspects that make it possible to achieve 15- or 20-min territories. The results reveal the need for urban development initiatives to focus on improving the supply of goods and services in areas with low installed capacity, promoting the culture of micro-neighbourhoods, and encouraging cycling. In particular, only 10% of trips, for all purposes and all modes of transport, are completed in less than 15min. And about 58% of trips, for all purposes and all modes, are completed in less than 30min. In the marginal effects of the multinomial logit model, a one-unit increase in travel time increases the probability of choosing to travel by public transport by 63% and decreases the probability of walking by 41%.