1481Epidemiology of membranous nephropathy in thirteen Asia-Pacific nations using an incidence-to-prevalence model

Abstract

Abstract Background Primary membranous nephropathy (PMN) is the leading cause of nephrotic syndrome. Several studies conducted in Asia-Pacific region report the incidence of PMN. However, there is a paucity of peer-reviewed published prevalence data for this condition. Methods A literature review was conducted using PubMed and Clarivate’s Cortellis database from 1/1/1980 to 1/11/2019) to identify country-specific, age- and gender-specific diagnosed incidence rates and observed survival data-point inputs for use in our incidence- prevalence model. For countries lacking published incidence data, logical extrapolations were made, applying the incidence from countries based on comparable geography and healthcare access. Results The diagnosed prevalence of PMN varies substantially between the countries under study, from 15 per million population (PMP), in the Philippines to 277 PMP in China in 2021. The number of diagnosed prevalent cases of PMN in the countries under study will increase by 21% over 2021-2031 with highest growth in Vietnam (34%) and lowest in Australia (9%). Conclusions The prevalence of PMN is expected to increase over the next ten years due to population aging, changes in population size, and improvements in survival in the countries under study. Limited registry and published prevalence data for these countries is highlighting the need for increasing awareness and research for this rare disease. Key messages This study provides the insights into the current and future trends in the prevalence of PMN in next 10-years (2021-2031) which was otherwise not reported in the published literature