1433. Predictive Models for Antibiotic Coverage of Gram-Negative Urinary Tract Infections

Abstract

BackgroundProviders use institutional recommendations, national guidelines, and antibiograms to decide on empiric antibiotics. As local antibiograms are most effective after organisms are known, we sought to use local microbiology and clinical data to develop predictive models for antibiotic coverage prior to identifying the organism. We focused on Gram-negative organisms as they are common urinary pathogens and are often the cause of sepsis originating in the urinary tract. As such, they are important to cover in hospitalized patients with urinary tract infections (UTI).MethodsHospitalized patients, with a diagnosis of UTI and a positive urine culture in the first 48 hours were included. Gram-positive organisms, yeast, and cultures without susceptibilities were excluded. Unknown susceptibilities were filled in using expert-derived rules. Clinical information from electronic health record (EHR) data were extracted on each patient. Penalized logistic regression with 10-fold cross validation was used to develop final models for coverage for five antibiotics (cefazolin, ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, cefepime, piperacillin–tazobactam). Final models were chosen based on their discrimination, calibration, and number of predictors, and then tested on a held-out validation dataset.ResultsIncluded were 5,096 patients (80% training; 20% validation). Coverage ranged from 65% for cefazolin to 90% for cefepime. Positive blood cultures were present in 544 (11%) with 388 (71%), including a urinary pathogen. In the first 24 hours, 2329 (46%) were hypotensive, 2179 (43%) had a respiratory rate > 22, 2049 (40%) had a WBC > 12, 1079 (21%) were febrile, and 584 (11%) required ICU care. Final model covariates included demographics, antibiotic exposure, prior resistant pathogens, and antibiotic allergies. The five predictive models had a point-estimate for the area under the ROC on the validation set that ranged from 0.70 for ciprofloxacin to 0.73 for ceftriaxone.ConclusionIn this cohort of moderate to high acuity hospitalized patients with Gram-negative urinary pathogens, we used EHR data to develop 5 models that predict antibiotic coverage which could be used to support empiric prescribing. These models performed well in a held-out validation set.Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.