108 Recency bias in weekly POEM recording and its effects on POEM prediction

Abstract

We recently developed a computational tool (EczemaPred) for personalised prediction of AD severity dynamics using PO-SCORAD. We aim to investigate whether EczemaPred can be applied to predict POEM score recorded weekly. We used data from 247 AD patients aged 11 to 65 years in a dose-finding study with up to 6 measurements of POEM and daily symptom scores for POEM over 16 weeks. We investigated the influence of the recency bias in reporting POEM by computing the partial cross-correlation between the observed POEM score and daily symptom scores recorded on the previous seven days using linear mixed-effects models.