Abstract
AbstractThe stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary.
Highlights
Other stratospheric warmings (SSWs) events have since been analyzed, and the results indicate the same surface effects (Mukougawa et al 2009; Marshall and Scaife 2010; Sigmond et al 2013; Tripathi et al 2015), adding to the evidence for an important role of the stratosphere on monthly surface weather forecasts
Ozone loss has potential severe consequences for humanity and the environment, and we are fortunate that 1) the observers and observing systems were in place to identify the problem, 2) we were able to find solutions, and 3) there was the political will to build and adhere to the Montreal Protocol and subsequent Adjustments
general circulation models (GCMs) simulations have been carried out to estimate what would have happened if we remained ignorant or if we chose to ignore the problem (Morgenstern et al 2008; Newman et al 2009; Garcia et al 2012). These studies are commonly called ‘‘the world avoided.’’ It turns out that the Montreal Protocol provided a dual protection to ozone and climate
Summary
SCAIFEe a Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom b Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Munich, Germany c Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany d Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany e Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom f National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado g Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmosphere, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York h National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, and Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom i International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii j Department of Geosciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel k Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom l Institut fu€r Meteorologie, Freie Universita€t Berlin, Berlin, Germany m Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey n Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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