1. Asia as the center of gravity of the world energy system

Abstract

The center of gravity of the world's energy market is shifting to the Asia-Pacific region and will continue to do so until 2010 and beyond. This shift is due to the region's rapid economic growth and increasing population (which is currently about 60% of total world population). The region's oil demand has already surpassed Western Europe's and will soon overtake North America's. Also, the region is involved in more than three-fourths of the world's trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG). Given these trends, a thorough understanding of the energy outlook of the Asia-Pacific region is of utmost importance to industry and governments-nationally, regionally, and internationally. To meet this need, the East-West Center's Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals has undertaken an analysis of the energy sector from 1993 to the year 2010, using high, low, and base case scenarios for the following economic groups within the region: (i) OECD Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand), (ii) newly industrialized economies (NIEs) (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan), (iii) Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam), (iv) South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan), (v) China, and (vi) other Asia-Pacific economies. The aggregate data for the Asia-Pacific region, presented in this article and in article 3, are based on these six categories. The category of other economies comprises the Pacific island nations and all the countries of Asia not listed above, with the exceptions of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East (including Iran). Summary data on the former Soviet Union are provided in a separate section of this article and are discussed in greater detail in article 4.