货币供应量作为中国货币政策中介目标的两条路径 Two Paths to the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy Based on the Money Supply in China

Abstract

货币供应量是否适合被作为中国货币政策中介目标呢？为了回答这个问题，我们建立了两个理论模型作为两条通向目标解决方案的路径。路径1：在假定货币流通速度为变量而非固定的情况下(阎虎勤、刘震宇，2011)[1]，通过应用Friedman(1956)[2]提出的存量收入货币数量方程式，我们建立了一个求解货币供应量增长率预期值的模型。路径2：通过应用阎虎勤、刘震宇(2011)[3]提出的增量收入货币数量方程式，我们建立了另外一个求解货币供应量预期值的模型。通过以中国1994~2010年的数据为样本进行实证分析和敏感性分析证实，虽然通过两条路径我们都可以得到货币供应量增长率的预期值，但是路径2比路径1更显著。 Should the money supply be used as an intermediate target of monetary policy in China? For an- swering this question, we have created two theoretical models as two paths to the target solutions. Path 1: when assuming that the velocity of money is a variable but not a constant (Yan Huqin, Liu Zhenyu, 2011)[1], by using the income quantity equation of money suggested by Friedman (1956)[2], we have created one model to get the expected growth rate of money supply. Path 2: by using the income quantity equation of money changes suggested by Yan Huqin and Liu Zhenyu (2011)[3], we have created the other model to get the ex- pected growth rate of money supply. Based on the Chinese data sample during 1994-2010 the empirical and sensitivity analysis has approved that even though through the two paths we can get the expected growth rate of money supply, the path 2 is more significant than the path 1.