Abstract

Sorghum halepensed (L.) Pers, an invasive species, grows in diverse phytocenoses from plains to low-mountain zones of the Caucasus. Predictive modeling showed that at present there are significant areas in the Central, Eastern Caucasus and North-West coast of the Black sea (up to the middle-mountain zones) which are potentially adequate and optimal for the species. The spatial distribution of S. halepense is determined by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (12.5-17^0 C) and the Thornthwaite aridity index (16-50). In accordance with the predicted trends of climatic changes by 2050, it is possible to expand the area of suitable and optimal habitats for the species in the mountains of the Western and Eastern Caucasus, Georgia and Armenia, on the Black Sea coast. Significant range expansion of the species is expected along low river valleys in high-mountains.

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