تعیین اعتبار مدل RothC جهت برآورد توان ترسیب کربن خاک بوم نظامی بازسازی شده، تحت دو سناریوی اقلیمی متفاوت

Abstract

Climate change by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, has led to increase attention to the carbon sequestration through the restoration and protection of vegetation cover. In this regards, ecosystems of arid regions have a special importance. In this study the effects of reconstruction and conservation, on soil carbon sequestration of the region of the International Carbon Sequestration Project in Hussein Abad, South Khorasan province of Iran was investigated by a simulation approach using RothC model. In addition, the effects of climate change (increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall) on soil carbon sequestration potential was studied. In the studied area, replanting was done in 2004 and then soil samples were taken every two months during 2010-2011. After collecting the required input data for RothC model (climate, soil and management input data), the model was evaluated and validated for the study area. Moreover, soil carbon sequestration was studied under climate change condition. The simulation results revealed that the RothC model is applicable in rangelands of dry and warm regions, because it estimated the soil carbon changes over the time with proper accuracy. The amounts of model performance index, R2 and RMSE were 0.98, 98% and 0.01, respectively. Simulation study indicated that soil carbon storage will increase from 2011 to 2050 and will be affected by climate change and protection programs. Based on model estimation the amounts of soil carbon in preotected areas will be higher than non-protected areas. Moreover, in non-climate change scenario the amounts of soil carbon will be higher than climate change scenario in 2050.