Abstract
This study aims to determine the reactions of ECOWAS countries in terms of economic costs following two external shocks: global production and inflation in the perspective of the creation of monetary union. Using a structural VAR, we analyze the impact of a policy of rising world output and global inflation on the real sector of these countries. To compare the reactions of the countries of the zone to these external shocks, we have carried out an analysis of the co-movements of the countries significant responses. The results reveal a lack of sustainability of the exchange rate regimes in place in the face of these shocks. Analysis of the impulse responses reveals divergences, due to the heterogeneity of the macroeconomic and financial structures of the countries. Beyond the economic aspect, aiming at economic integration as a sine qua non condition for the realization of the project of creating monetary union, we must also aim at the integration of peoples. Because this decision is more political than economic.
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