中国能源安全的海外风险及对策 / Overseas Risks to China’s Energy Security and Potential Countermeasures

中共經濟的穩定成長，石油是關鍵，沒有穩定的石油供給，中共經濟就少了支撐發展的後盾與棟樑，使得能源因素一直在中共經濟發展的過程中具有不可磨滅的決定性作用。 中共自1993年正式成為石油淨進口國家，十餘年來，對石油的需求日增，在國內自有產量受限的情況下，積極的向外出走，尋求油源，成為其不得不然的戰略抉擇。為此，中共藉由軍事互動、經貿互惠、合作開採以及大國外交等手段鞏固與產油國家的邦誼，並藉此獲得充足的石油供應。 在獲取穩定石油供給的同時，中共也必然陷入與世界各強權國家發生「國家利益」爭奪的複雜環境中，美日集團的圍堵、世界新興強權油源的爭奪以及石油資源的耗竭，在在都對其穩定石油供給來源造成嚴重的衝擊與挑戰，所幸，危機亦是轉機，分析中共的長期應對作為，無論是戰略上突破美日集團的封鎖、運輸通道的確保、珍珠鏈式的布局，或是與印日等國油源的爭奪，及至技術操作層面上油源的開發與經營、戰略石油儲備系統的建立、研發替代能源與立法節能等手段，在國際原油短期間內不會開採殆盡的前提下，筆者論斷中共穩定石油供給來源的關鍵不在別人，它──操之在中共自已的意願。 中共綜合國力的成長已然使其位列國際強權之林，合縱連橫、折衝罇俎功力的成熟運用，未來將使中共在國際原油市場上佔有的份量日增；為了發展，中共需要穩定的國內外環境，為了發展，中共需要穩定的石油供給，因此中共短期內不會破壞現有的國際和平，委曲或是一途，但求全卻是目標的極致。

Abstract: Increased energy usage in line with economic growth and the increase in world population has an immediate impact for the depletion of fossil -based energy, especially petroleum. The fact that world oil supplies are limited, many states are forced to prioritize energy policy as a top priority in development policy. In addition, this condition has raised new fears that the global energy security. With a strong concern of potential extinction of petroleum and other fossil -based energy sources , policy makers should pay more attention to energy security. The same trend is occurring in Indonesia. Along with the increase in the national population, national and regional development plans, the need for national energy security is a must. The Indonesian government must be able to answer the challenge is to strengthen national energy security. Because energy is a strategic conditions to support national development through the availability of sufficient, safe, and energy- quality and evenly distributed throughout Indonesia at an affordable price, it requires a government policy that supports national energy security. An attempt was made by the Government of Indonesia to ensure energy security is to issue a policy for the use of renewable energy in Indonesia . Key Words: renewable energy, policy, national security, economic growth

US energy security strategy and China’s energy diplomacy 1

From geopolitical point of view, this thesis aims to probe into China’s energy security and energy cooperation with ASEAN, intricacies and challenges between them along the process, as well as the future trend. With 6% of its total oil consumption coming from foreign countries, China, for the first time, has become a net importer of crude oil in 1993. In 2004, it overtook Japan to become the world ' s second - largest consumer of oil while it shared 20.3% of global energy consumption and 55.2% of oil dependency, became the biggest user of oil in 2010, ahead of the U.S. Although being abundant in natural resources, such as oil, gas, coal and water supplies, ASEAN has greater demands for energy due to rapid economic growth. Therefore, energy inefficiency in the region is inevitable. Along with China and ASEAN’s enormous needs for resources, their respective strategies in energy have to be altered accordingly. Mutual trust and energy cooperation mechanism, such as strategic dialogue in economy, investment and fields of cooperation, have to be strengthened. In respect of energy security, China has to maintain stable relationship with ASEAN. Even though both sides have reached successful achievement in political and economic alliance, they, undeniably, are annoyed by other concerns like sovereignty and resource distribution issues in the South China Sea areas, which may pose threat to their diplomatic relationship and undermine future energy cooperation.

Stanislav Zakharovich Zhiznin is the founder of energy diplomacy in Russia and in the world, the author of the term “energy diplomacy”, a leading Russian expert on energy policy, diplomacy and international energy security. Prof. Zhiznin published first Russian textbook on energy diplomacy and many monographs on energy diplomacy, in Russian, English, and Chinese [Zhiznin 2005]. S.Z. Zhiznin graduated from the Kharkiv Aviation Institute in 1969 with a degree in electrical engineering, then - from the Diplomatic Academy of the USSR Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1977 with a degree in international economic relations. In 1998 he defended his Candidate’s thesis on the issue “Energy diplomacy of Russia at the turn of the 20th - 21st centuries (foreign economic aspects)”, and in 2001 - his Doctor’s dissertation on “Strategic interests of Russia in world energy” and became a Doctor of Science (Economics). He has been working in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation since 1977. S. Zhiznin has a Diplomatic Rank of 1st Class Counsellor. Until the end of 2010, he was the chief adviser to the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian MFA. S. Zhiznin is currently a professor at the Department of International Dimension of Fuel and Energy Industry named after N.P. Laverov, MGIMO. He contributed to the development of the information materials for the Russian delegation for the meetings of G8 (now G7), OPEC, IEA, Gas Exporting Countries Forum, International Energy Forum, APEC, etc. S.Z. Zhiznin is the President of the Center for Energy Diplomacy and Geopolitics, established in 2003 with the participation of the Union of Oil & Gas Producers of Russia and support of the Russian MFA. In 2011, he became an OSCE expert on energy diplomacy and energy security. The interview presents the formation of energy diplomacy as a science, covers the evolution of the concept of “energy diplomacy”, discusses the energy factor influence on the policies of Russia and other countries, analyses the role of TNCs in shaping the state’s energy policy. Energy diplomacy, as S.Z. Zhiznin points out, is a complex symbiosis of economics, geopolitics, and technological sciences; so, research in energy diplomacy is inextricably linked with these sciences. At present, energy diplomacy is being heavily influenced by the technology development, which makes states take into account this factor while forming their energy strategies.

Canada’s growing interest in trade with countries in the Indo-Pacific region corresponds with an ominous growth in geopolitical instability and insecurity in that part of the globe. With Indo-Pacific hunger for oil expected to soar – especially in China, where demand will translate to 80 per cent of imports in 10 years – Canada needs to develop policies to deal with the region’s turbulent realities. The Indo-Pacific comprises countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia, and includes such unstable and unpredictable players as North Korea and Pakistan, both of which have nuclear weapons and long-simmering border tensions. India is an emerging economic and military rival to China. In the next 20 years, China and India are expected to lead the global demand for gas as coal consumption continues to decline, and Canada has a stake in this prosperous future. Along with territorial squabbles in the region, Canada will have to deal with complex issues such as terrorism, human trafficking, transnational crime, piracy and cyber-crime, as well as the struggle for global dominance between China and the U.S. One key area for potential conflict is China’s recent construction and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea. The Canadian government’s new military strategy, Strong, Secure, Engaged does little more than make a plea for peace and the rule of law in the South China Sea. However, more trade crosses the Pacific Ocean from Canada than crosses the Atlantic. And with Canada signing on to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the region’s troubles will need to be resolved by more than good intentions on paper. Canada must shift more diplomatic, security and military resources to the Indo-Pacific; otherwise, its efforts will be spread too thinly to be effective in the region. Trade, especially through a major route like the Strait of Malacca, could easily be disrupted by any one of a number of disputes, such as a conflict between China and Taiwan or if historic resentments boil over among competing territorial claimants in the region. Thus, Canada needs to step up and reaffirm its security commitments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a partner in the region. Participating in maritime exercises and Freedom of Navigation (FON) operations would also help to reinforce to countries in the region the importance of abiding by international law. Meanwhile, Canada should set aside for now any intentions to negotiate a free trade agreement with China. China does not share some of Canada’s key trade and security goals and its aggressive behaviour in the South and East China Seas clearly signal that now is not the time to talk about a trade pact. China must demonstrate that it is willing to take a more cooperative approach to resolving trade and security issues in the Indo-Pacific and to support and respect the rule of law in the region. Canada has the potential to become a reliable, stable source of energy for Indo-Pacific countries. There is also an opportunity for provinces such as Alberta to strike their own strategic deals to provide energy resources to countries in that region, in return for trade and investment benefits. However, while investing at home in the necessary infrastructure and export capability to expand its role, Canada must also strive to bring its own unique approach to enhancing regional and energy security in the Indo-Pacific.

Energy and Non-Traditional Security (NTS) in Asia MELY CABALLERO-ANTHONY, YOUNGHO CHANG, and NUR AZHA PUTRA, eds. Heidelberg: Springer, 2012, ix+121p.Human Security: Securing East Asia's Future BENNY TEH CHENG GUAN, ed. Dordrecht and New York: Springer, 2012, xiii+255p.At present, non-traditional security issues have increasingly come to forefront of international attention, due to ongoing insecurity of populations and communities in Asian states. As a theme of global relevance, energy security in ASEAN nations has moved beyond issues of sovereignty and national security and gradually involved well-being of their populations. From nontraditional security perspectives, Energy and Non-Traditional Security (NTS) in Asia, is a timely collection of essays by well-chosen scholars who provide insightful explanations of salient aspects of energy security in ASEAN, and advance a series of policy recommendations at international, national, and individual levels, many of which should be practical in future.As Mely Caballero-Anthony and Nur Azha Putra conclude, security, stability, and sustainability are three fundamental features of non-traditional security to energy security (Anthony et al., pp. 4-5). Discussing negative impacts of energy security in ASEAN states, Maria Nimfa F. Mendoza examines current situation of energy markets, and explores socio-economic impacts on them at both microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. For instance, ASEAN states are burdened by considerable transportation costs, which lead to higher product costs than product prices. In words of Fitrian Ardiansyah, Neil Gunningham, and Peter Drahos, transaction costs are another negative impact which requires searching for, negotiating and enforcing contracts (Anthony et al., p. 109). In this respect, Indonesia sets a good example: for Indonesian government, there is a need to increase networked governance capacity on energy decisionmaking, and create a stable core of bureaucratic decision-makers (Anthony et al., p. 111). As Ardiansyah, Gunningham, and Drahos suggest in accordance with case of Indonesia, it is more practical to establish multilateral forums to coordinate central government, local government, investors, and developers.However, should ASEAN states provide subsidies for energy security? Mendoza stresses that fuel subsidies will probably distort product and even lead to biases in resource allocation that move away from labor-intensive industries (Anthony et al., p. 69). For example, governmental subsidies for bio-fuel could reduce relevant efficiency in helping poor consumers, since a substantial portion of governmental subsidies do go to richer consumers. Furthermore, subsidies for fossil fuel would distort corresponding pricing.The contributors advance a series of recommendations for enhancing energy security. In view of Youngho Chang and Swee Lean Collin Koh, market governance adds essential dimension to policy recommendations for energy security. There are four approaches to governance: market, bilateral, trilateral, and unified governance. In context of ASEAN states, market governance is most applicable approach, which is defined as an adequate and reliable supply of energy resources at reasonable prices (Anthony et al., p. 28). Because this approach does not merely balance the virtues of free market principles and government regulatory mechanisms (Anthony et al., p. 25) and encourage investment in energy sources, but also meets rising regional demand for energy. In case of Fukushima accident in Japan, Chang and Koh address adequate governance, environmental influences, and human costs in guaranteeing energy security. Moreover, based on evaluations of energy diversity in ASEAN states, Youngho Chang and Lixia Yao explain that energy diversity can constitute another approach to ensuring energy security in ASEAN states, offering not only a variety of energy infrastructures, but also a variety of energy sources. …

Introduction Antonio Marquina German Debates on Energy Security and Impacts on Germany's 2007 EU Presidency Frank Umbach Russia as an Energy Great Power: Consequences for EU Energy Security Javier Morales Perceptions and Misperceptions of Energy Supply Security in Europe and the 'China Factor' Michal Meidan The Southeast-Southwest European Energy Corridor Antonio Marquina Greece's Energy Security Strategy: Between Energy Needs and Geopolitical Imperatives Kostas Ifantis Between Continuity and Change: The Italian Approach to Energy Security Gianluca Pastori Security of Supply: Spanish Policies in the EU Context Javier de Quinto and Julian Lopez Does China Have an 'Energy Diplomacy'? Reflections on China's Energy Security and its International Dimensions Linda Jakobson China's Energy Policy and its Development Shi Dan Energy Security Challenges to Asian Countries from Japan's Viewpoints Shigeru Sudo Energy Security in Northeast Asia: Competition and Cooperation Tai Hwan Lee Energy Security and Investment Opportunity in ASEAN Akhmad Nidlom, Andini Desita, Evangeline L. Moises, Christopher G. Zamora and Weerawat Chantanakome Energy Security: An Indonesian Perspective Edy Prasetyono Philippine Energy Policy: Implications for Human Security and Regional Cooperation Carolina G. Hernandez Nuclear Energy: World Perspectives Eduardo Gonzalez and Jose Maria Martinez-Val Human Security: European and Asian Approaches Antonio Marquina and Mely Caballero-Anthony

The development of international relations after the 1973 oil crisis was accompanied by the emergence of such phenomena and concepts as global and regional energy security, energy security of states, foreign energy policy and energy diplomacy. Institutionalization and development of mechanisms ensuring energy security – including global energy security – occurred and continues to occur under the conditions of dominance of hydrocarbon fossil fuels in the world energy balance, as well as in the context of energy consumption worldwide. The priorities of its provision at the global, regional and state levels were and are the security of demand, supply and transit of hydrocarbon raw materials, and the diversification of energy sources. After signing the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, efforts are being made to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the world economy and the pace of the global energy transition. This involves mechanisms for responsible investment, carbon regulation, greenhouse gas emissions management (climate management); uses a variety of socially significant interpretations of ongoing climate change. These processes are increasingly determining the foreign energy policy of states, international energy diplomacy and influencing the previously formed mechanisms for ensuring energy security. The article is aimed at generalization and systematization of the ongoing changes in the activities of both traditional international centers and institutes of global energy policy, and relatively new international platforms in the subject area under consideration, primarily the Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and their impact on energy policy and energy diplomacy.

This article reveals the essence of energy diplomacy in Ukraine to be an effective and powerful tool for improving national energy security. The focus lies on an analysis of the European energy diplomacy rules that presuppose the ability to take into account the interests of all parties, including the interests of Ukraine, which comply with European legislation and should be considered as an integral part of the EU gas market. With a powerful resource, it is a transit country for’ the transportation of gas, Ukraine needs to concentrate all its efforts on maintaining the status of a geopolitical player. However, playing by European rules requires compliance with European standards on the organization of gas production and transportation. Currently, Ukraine has been developing an proactive energy diplomacy strategy that faces external challenges and threats. While playing a crucial role as a strategic geopolitical gas transit country, Ukraine requires the use of proactive strategies to advance the agenda for European energy security. To conclude, it is necessary that Ukraine should vigorously develop suitable energy diplomacy as an effective tool for improving energy security both on the national and European levels.This article reveals the essence of energy diplomacy in Ukraine to be an effective and powerful tool for improving national energy security. The focus lies on an analysis of the European energy diplomacy rules that presuppose the ability to take into account the interests of all parties, including the interests of Ukraine, which comply with European legislation and should be considered as an integral part of the EU gas market. With a powerful resource, it is a transit country for’ the transportation of gas, Ukraine needs to concentrate all its efforts on maintaining the status of a geopolitical player. However, playing by European rules requires compliance with European standards on the organization of gas production and transportation. Currently, Ukraine has been developing an proactive energy diplomacy strategy that faces external challenges and threats. While playing a crucial role as a strategic geopolitical gas transit country, Ukraine requires the use of proactive strategies to advance the agenda for European energy security. To conclude, it is necessary that Ukraine should vigorously develop suitable energy diplomacy as an effective tool for improving energy security both on the national and European levels.

Since the end of the Cold war, many tensions in the international society appear to be eased. In order to sustain it’s economic development, China have to keep stable relationship with international community and such intention also affects China’s positions and practices on confidence building measures (CBMs). Besides, to ease the concerns of other countries about “China threat”, China has been enthusiastically concluding many CBMs agreements with other countries and group of countries by advocating new security concept and cooperative patterns. However, the measures which China took still think inside the box of national strategies. The features of China’s CBMs can be summarized as follow: 1) setting up political statement, 2) enhancing informal patterns, 3) developing bilateral and multilateral relationship simultaneously, 4) advancing step by step. To maintain its best interests, China’s CBMs establishment with Russia, central Asia countries, India, USA and Japan is based on four dimensions: 1. military strategy: to ease the concerns of other countries about China threat. 2. economic strategy: to protect primary economic interests, and to create a suitable economic development environment. 3. security strategy: to constrain the rise of separationism. 4. energy strategy: to assure the security of supply line and supply. With the rapidly rising of China’s national power, the strengths of economy and military power have gradually tilted to in favor of China. It’s important to put efforts on how to establish CBMs between both sides under the prerequisite of security across the Taiwan Strait. However, there still exist differences on the issues of definition of “one China,” perception of sovereignty, and perception of threat between Taiwan and the Mainland. Close cross-strait contacts on all aspects over the years have produced structural changes in cross-strait relations, and this has given opportunities for both sides to achieve peace. Based on the research findings, I suggest that, how to establish CBMs between both sides through “enhancing political will”, “indentifying responsible institution”, “establishing research units and databases”, “adopting defense strategies” and “obtaining support from the US” by the Taiwan government should be the priority in the current stage. In the meanwhile, the planning of establishing thinking tank and the effects caused by military imbalance of cross-strait should be put into evaluation by the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan.

Energy Policy And Security Through The Lenses Of The Stochastic Portfolio Theory And The ACEGES Model.- Energy Security As A Subset Of National Security.- Challenges To Global Energy Policy And Supply Security.- Change In Energy Structure And Energy Security Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios.- Insights On Cooperative Electricity Consumption In Human Aggregates From A Thermodynamic Analysis: Implications For Energy Policies.- The UK Electricity System And Its Resilience.- The Macroeconomic Effects Of Energy Purchases.- EU's Dynamic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency: Combining Data Envelopment Analysis and Multicriteria Decision Making.- The Availability Of European Oil And Gas Resources.- Energy Security: Stochastic Analysis Of Oil Prices.- Green Energy Development in China: The Case of Clean Coal Technologies.- China's New Energy Security: A Swing of the Pendulum.- The Energy Efficiency Policy Initiatives and Energy Security: Experiences from India.- Impact of Shocks on Australian Coal Mining.- An Assessment of the Impacts of Government Energy Policy on Energy Technology Innovation and Security: The Case of Renewable Technologies in the US Electricity Sector.- An Overview of Energy Policy and Security in the Pacific Region.- The Evolution of the Spanish Energy System in the Context of Energy Security: Current Trends, Future Developments.- Energy, Development and Economic Growth in Colombia.

Is Security A Meaningful Concept? Phil Sharp, long-time chairman of the House Energy Subcommittee, vigorously argued that the best energy security policy is to have lots of people producing and lots of people distributing the energy that the United States needs. This minimizes the risk of a disruption at any one point in the production/distribution chain. In this context, he said that the one enduring energy security question that requires diplomacy, military presence, and the willingness to use force is the concentration of oil reserves, production, and surge capacity in the Middle East. Backing up Sharp, long-time Amoco vice-president John Lyman argued that U.S. energy security is best maintained by ensuring that the United States is, and is perceived to be, fully supportive of free trade and of the use of market forces on a global scale. Vito Stagliano of Resources for the Future argued that energy security is an empty concept used to perpetuate bad, self-serving public policy. He recounted the history of dramatizing energy issues and using energy as a reason for dubious public policy, in which category he included expenditures in excess of $100 billion between 1973 and 1992. most important contribution to U.S. energy security during that period came not from any of the projects financed by this spending but instead by the de facto death of OPEC. death of OPEC, he argued, came from the 1981 U.S. government decision to end price controls and reduce regulations on energy output. 1981 actions spurred the growth of spot and futures markets that disrupted the ability of any government, including those of the OPEC countries, to control oil prices. John Riggs, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Department of Energy, replied that energy security reminded him of Mark Twain's comment, The music of Wagner is better than it sounds. That is, while the 1973 and 1980 oil shocks led to some inflated rhetoric and while energy security has been used as a justification for some pork barrel projects, the fact is that the oil shocks did inflict significant economic harm on the United States. True, much (although certainly not all) of this harm arose because of the imposition of price controls, but that should not be used to minimize the effect that the oil shocks had on the economy and therefore the potential effects that a future shock could have. Mr. Riggs also argued that dependence on energy imports can reduce U.S. foreign policy options. As an example, he asked if the United States would have opted to bomb Libya in 1986 had world oil markets been tight? He suggested that the United States might not have taken such a strong stance against Libyan terrorism had the United States been concerned it could provoke another oil price shock. Supply Disruptions participants agreed that the world oil supply system has changed since the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s. system now has much greater flexibility, thanks to a much larger role for market forces. On the other hand, Mr. Riggs cautioned against exaggerating the role of market forces. Since Saudi Arabia can produce oil at two to three dollars per barrel and the world price is seventeen to eighteen dollars, something other than market forces seems to be at work. After noting that regulations and price controls that encumbered oil markets in the past have now been largely eliminated, Hill Huntington of Stanford University's Energy Modelling Forum asked, how well and how quickly would markets work to adjust to a supply shock, and if they did not work quickly enough, would politicians step in with price controls or other such measures. He argued that macroeconomic models show that a doubling of oil prices would cut U.S. GDP by about 5 percent after a period of one and a half years. He argued that in the face of such a considerable price, the U.S. government was likely to adopt offsetting policies. …

This thesis examines the interplay between energy security and law and policies promoting green energy. Based on empirical work carried out in two very different country case studies – Great Britain and Brazil – this thesis attempts to foster a better understanding of the role played by energy security in constructing and deconstructing green energy policy initiatives. Understanding the diversity of views on and the complexities of the interplay between energy security and green energy development is at the heart of this thesis. The diversity of views raised in national contexts leads to legal disputes in international forums when attempts are made to address the issues of this energy security-green energy interplay. As such, building on the findings of the case studies of Great Britain and Brazil, this thesis then analyses the interplay between energy security and green energy development in international trade law as encapsulated in the law of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), an international trade organisation which adjudicates between competing discursive claims surrounding energy security and green energy development and pronounces on their legal status. This thesis shows the complexity of the relationship between energy security and law and policies on green energy development and how the existing discursive constructions are broadening, deepening and transforming this interplay. In summary, the findings demonstrate the discursive contests that lead to divergent constructions of energy security not only in the context of different countries, but also in different sectors of the economy within a country. It also shows that the links between energy security and national and international law and policies on green energy pose challenges to a transition to a green energy system. In order to assist the energy transition, this thesis puts forward the adoption of the broader energy security concept in law and policies which includes environmental, climate and social considerations. It also argues for the incorporation of a dominant positive frame in relation to the interplay between energy security and law and policy on green energy development since a positive frame in relation to this link has the implication to significantly contribute to the promotion of an energy source. In addition, it advances the need to embrace emerging green energy technologies in energy systems and argues that an evenly distributed market share of green energy technologies and equipment around the world is the best solution to ensure green energy security in the context of the just energy transition. This thesis then proposes a way forward in creating the legal space in the law of the WTO for trade restrictive measures aimed at ensuring green energy security.

With rising energy demand in Asia and the crisis in Ukraine threatening Europe’s gas supplies, energy security is on top of the political agenda. Can low-carbon societies deliver on this priority? The answer to this question rests on the extent and timing of low-carbon policies and the definition energy security: security of what?; security for whom?; and security from which threats? In this article, I explore the energy security implications of (1) Europe’s 2030 climate/energy package and (2) global long-term climate stabilization. Over the short-term the priority for Europe’s climate/energy goals and energy security are not aligned: the former is achieving emissions reductions for the biggest emitters whereas the latter is reducing the vulnerability of the smallest and most vulnerable countries. Long-term global climate stabilization leads to lower energy imports and resource depletion along with higher diversity of energy options in China, the EU and India, but it can limit energy export revenues for the US and other energy exporters.