Abstract
Abstract Sources of aviation turbulence vary through the seasons, especially in the East Asiaincluding Korean peninsula, associated primarily with the changes in the jet/front system andconvective activities. For this reason, a seasonal Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG)system (seasonal-KTG) is developed in the present study by using pilot reports (PIREPs) andanalysis data of the operational Unified Model (UM) of the Korea Meteorological Administra-tion (KMA) for two years between June 2011 and May 2013. Twenty best diagnostics of avia-tion turbulence in each season are selected by the method of probability of detection (POD)using the PIREPs and UM data. After calculating a weighting value of each selected diagnos-tics using their area under curve (AUC), the 20 best diagnostics are combined with the weight-ing scores into a single ensemble-averaged index by season. Compared with the currentoperational-KTG system that is based on the diagnostics applying all seasons, the perfor-mances of the seasonal-KTG system are better in all seasons, except in fall. Key words: Pilot report (PIREP), seasonal Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) sys-tem (seasonal-KTG), Unified Model (UM)
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