디지털 혁신의 국제비교와 시나리오별 무역 영향 분석 (International Comparison and Trade Effects of Digital Innovation According to Various Scenarios)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 4차 산업혁명은 지능정보기술이 경제 및 사회전반에 융합되어 혁명적인 변화가 이루어지는 차세대 산업혁명을 의미한다. 본 연구는 4차 산업혁명에 따른 기술과 산업의 발전에 대해 살펴보고 경제패러다임 및 무역패턴의 변화를 분석하였다. 또한 미국특허자료와 OECD통계 등을 이용하여 디지털 혁신 수준을 국별 및 산업별로 비교 분석하였다. 아울러 반사실적 분석이 가능한 이론적 무역모형을 구축하고 디지털혁신이 무역에 미치는 영향을 시나리오별로 분석하였다. English Abstract: The fourth industrial revolution is the next generation industrial revolution driven by intelligence information technology. Specifically, the digital innovations related to artificial intelligence, big data analysis, cloud computing, and the internet of things have driven hyper-connection between all products and services through global networks, thereby advancing the data-driven economy. This study describes the trend of digital innovations in the wake of the fourth industrial revolution, discussing the changes in the economic paradigm and international trade patterns in the future. This study also compares industry-level digital innovation by country using the data on patents reported to the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), as well as the dataset provided by the OECD and the International Federation of Robotics. We simulate the effect of digital innovation on trade according to various scenarios, setting up the theoretical model for counter-factual analysis using data from World Input-Output Table released in 2016. In order to quantify the trade effects from digital innovation, we add fundamental productivity into a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian model with input-output linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity. According to the results of the analysis, the significant improvement in the world’s digital innovation, led by the US and Japan, shows an increasing step curve during the years of 1998 and 2010. The quantitative and the qualitative level of Korea’s digital innovation is steadily rising, and the latest data rank it at a high level. However, Korea’s level of digital innovation is still relatively low compared to the US and Japan. When considering the recent drop in Korea’s H index with an increase in the level of digital innovation in China and India, Korea may experience a similar decline as the EU.