收入分配、总消费、与相对收入假说：一个文献述评 (Income Distribution, Aggregate Consumption, and Relative Income Hypothesis: A Literature Review)

Abstract

本文围绕收入分配与社会总消费之关系这一题目，对消费理论在西方学界的发展作了简要的梳理，并由此阐明，相对收入假说是唯一完全符合现有主要经验事实的消费理论，而各种形式的“绝对收入理论”即以绝对收入水平来解释个体消费的理论，包括凯恩斯的绝对收入假说以及主流的生命周期——持久收入假说，都无法与现有经验事实完全相容。这表明，只有相对收入假说适合作为解释个体消费行为，以及讨论收入分配与总消费之间关系的基本理论框架。本文指出，由于受西方主流学界之偏见的影响，国内学界对相对收入假说的认识和研究都处于起步阶段而显得严重不足。未来一段时间，无论是研究消费理论本身，还是讨论收入分配对总消费的影响，中国学者都应当把相对收入假说作为一个当务之急的研究重点。 This paper conducts a succinct review of the development of consumption theory in the West, in relation to the question of whether and how income distribution affects aggregate consumption, thereby showing that the relative income hypothesis (RIH) is the only consumption theory that is consistent with the existing empirical findings. On the other hand, the various “absolute income theories”, i.e. consumption theories which make individual consumption depend on absolute income levels, including Keynes’ absolute income hypothesis (AIH) and the mainstream life cycle-permanent income hypothesis (LCH-PIH), are all incompatible with the existing empirical evidence in one way or another. Hence, only RIH is acceptable as the basic theoretical framework for understanding individual consumption behavior, and thus for exploring the relation between income distribution and aggregate consumption. We further point out that, due to the biased influence of the mainstream economics in the West, the understanding and research of RIH are seriously inadequate in China. In the foreseeable future, RIH should be a top priority for Chinese researchers, both regarding the study of consumption theory per se and in relation to the discussion of whether China’s growing income inequality has adversely affected its internal demand.