АВТОМАТИЗОВАНА СИСТЕМА «ICE-AUTUMN» ДЛЯ ДОВГОСТРОКОВОГО ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ДАТ ПОЯВИ ЛЬОДОВИХ ЯВИЩ ТА ВСТАНОВЛЕННЯ ЛЬОДОСТАВУ НА ВОДОСХОВИЩАХ ДНІПРОВСЬКОГО КАСКАДУ

Abstract

Long-term forecasting of long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs is important, first of all, of practical importance, since on its basis is planned the work of hydropower, shipping, fisheries, utilities, etc. In the modern world, providing consumers of the predictive hydrological products is done with the help of various automated computer complexes and systems that have a convenient user interface. This approach has become widely used in Ukraine too. Thus, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center uses the automated forecasting and modeling complexes that allow short- and long-term forecasting of streamflow during floods on the rivers of Ukraine. Along with this, the automated system for forecasting the appearance timing of ice regime of rivers and reservoirs of Ukraine was created only for short-term forecasting. The main objective of this research is to create an automated system for long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs for its further use in the operational practice of the Ukrainian Hydrological Center. The software of the automated system “Ice-Autumn” for long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs is written in the C# and C++ programming languages in the Visual Studio 2022 Community Edition frame in the form of Windows forms and console applications. The basis of the system “Ice-Autumn” is predictive dependencies, which were determined by finding the best correlation or regression relationships between dates at indicator gauges and teleconnection indicators, as well as between dates at indicator posts and dates at other gauges of reservoirs. Forecasts can be carried out once a year, namely on October 20 for the appearance dates of ice phenomena and November 1 for the appearance dates of freeze-up. The automated system “Ice-Autumn” allows to carried out the long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at 36 water gauges at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs. Testing of the “Ice-Autumn” system showed its efficiency and, accordingly, the possibility of its use in the operational work of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center. Instructions for installing the “Ice-Autumn” system on a personal computer and a user manual were developed.