기후변화와 관련한 제주지역 농업용수의 효율적 활용 방안(I)

Abstract

Rainfall, on Jeju Island varies regionally in relation to Mt. Halla with higher rainfall within southern area and lower in western area, and its variability is expected to expand according to the climate change scenario. Non-parametric trend analysis for rainfall, using both historic (1971-2010) and simulated (2011-2100) data assuming the A1B emissions scenario, shows regionally increasing trends with time. In perspective of agricultural land use, area for market garden including various crop types with high water demand is increasing over the Island, especially in the western area with lower rainfall compared to southern area. On the other hand, area for fruit including mandarin and kiwi with low water demand is widely distributed over southern and northern part having higher rainfall. These regional disparity of water demand/supply may be more affected by extreme events such as drought and heavy rainfall that has not yet been considered. Therefore, it is necessary to make policies for water resource management considering both demand and supply in different regions with climate change impacts over Jeju Island.