인천국제공항의 안개 특성에 따른 안개 안정 지수 FSI(Fog Stability Index) 개발 및 검증

Abstract

The original Fog Stability Index (FSI) is formulated as FSI=<TEX>$2(T-T_d)+2(T-T_{850})+WS_{850}$</TEX>, where <TEX>$T-T_d$</TEX> is dew point deficit (temperature-dew point temperature), <TEX>$T-T_{850}$</TEX> is atmospheric stability measure (temperature-temperature at 850 hPa altitude) and <TEX>$WS_{850}$</TEX> is wind speed at 850 hPa altitude. As a way to improve fog prediction at Incheon International Airport (IIA), we develop the modified FSI for IIA, using the meteorological data at IIA for two years from June 2011 to May 2013, the first one year for development and the second one year for validation. The relative contribution of the three parameters of the modified FSI is 9: 1: 0, indicating that <TEX>$WS_{850}$</TEX> is found to be a non-contributing factor for fog formation at IIA. The critical success index (CSI) of the modified FSI is 0.68. Further development is made to consider the fact that fogs at IIA are highly influenced by advection of moisture from the Yellow Sea. One added parameter after statistical evaluation of the several candidate parameters is the dew point deficit at a buoy over the Yellow Sea. The relative contribution of the four parameters (including the new one) of the newly developed FSI is 10: 2: 0.5: 6.4. The CSI of the new FSI is 0.50. Since the developmental period of one year is too short, the FSI should be refined more as the data are accumulated more.