중국 FDI와 환율의 관계에 대한 실증연구

Abstract

Purpose – Theoretically, exchange rate appreciation and exchange rate volatility may increase or decrease FDI inflows, and the results of empirical analyses are mixed. Given these inconsistent findings, this study aims to empirically investigate the effects of exchange rates and exchange rate volatility on FDI in China. Design/Methodology/Approach – To analyze the effects of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on FDI, we first generate exchange rate volatility, monthly GDP data, and the difference between long-term interest rates in China and the U.S., and then set the time period of increased exchange rate volatility after 2012 as a dummy variable. We finally investigate the long run equilibrium and the short run dynamics by employing the time series ARDL model. Findings – The estimation results show that the FDI determination model exhibits a long-run equilibrium relationship. In the long and short runs, exchange rate appreciation, increased exchange rate volatility, and the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. inhibit FDI inflows to China. However, GDP growth promotes FDI inflows only in the long-run. Research Implications – By empirically investigating the effects of China's exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on FDI, we may evaluate whether the current reforms of the CNY exchange rate are all in the direction of stability and marketization.