Վերաֆինանսավորման տոկոսադրույքի տատանումների ազդեցությունը շուկայական տոկոսադրույքների վրա Հայաստանի Հանրապետությունում / Effect of Refinancing Interest Rate Fluctuations on Market Interest Rates in the Republic of Armenia

Abstract

It is indisputable that the real sector of the economy requires investment, especially in the current technological age. Banks, on the other hand, possess significant financial resources, but due to insufficient, asymmetric information and the underdeveloped financial system, the interaction between the real and financial sectors is ineffective. The "late response" of the financial sector to changes in the real sector has become the cause of a chronic oversupply of financial services, resulting in a situation where the level of liquidity in banks is largely independent of economic cycles. The paper aims to identify the ways in which interest rate fluctuations impact the real and financial sectors of the RA economy and to evaluate this impact. The paper analyzes trends in the main indicators characterizing the real and financial sectors of RA, as well as the behavior of various types of interest rates according to the factors determining them. It comments on the macroeconomic developments in RA caused by interest rate fluctuations. With the help of econometric models, the study estimates the effect sizes between various links on the interest rate path. The study made it possible to highlight the problems with the transmission mechanisms of the monetary policy of RA and suggest possible solutions. As a result of the assessment, it was found that deposit and credit interest rates, interbank repo rates, and one-year government bond yield rates respond to changes in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank in different time lags.